Revisiting the Resource-Conflict Link: A Systematic Comparative Test of Causal Mechanisms in Four Major Oil-Exporting Countries

Abstract

Causal mechanisms and related contextual variables are crucial to the study of the resource-conflict link, but little systematic research has been done on their exact functioning. This paper contributes to the filling of this gap by comparing four major oil exporters (Algeria, Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela) with differing levels of internal violence. To capture the causal complexity of the resource-conflict link we created a questionnaire with some 150 variables that distinguish between resource-specific (RS) and non-resource specific (NRS) conditions. The causal mechanisms are measured by assigning pertinent RS and NRS indicators to them. Our results suggest that the role of resources may be less prominent than is widely assumed. Only three resource-related causal mechanisms provide limited explanatory value (motive at subnational level, indirect economic, and institutional mechanism) by distinguishing Venezuela-the most peaceful case-from all the others. Only a mixed mechanism that combines 13 RS and NRS (economic and geographic characteristics, identity, intergroup relations, as well as political and institutional variables, including elite behavior) conditions can explain the differences between the countries with regard to the dependent variable comprehensively.

Conflict Prevention Through Natural Resource Management? A Comparative Study

“…A partial link between the three causal mechanisms underlying our study (motive, opportunity, and indirect effects) is nevertheless possible (Basedau/Mähler/Shabafrouz 2010;Shabafrouz 2010b). As the intrastate war was nurtured by indirect problematic effects of high dependence on hydrocarbons by the Algerian economy (Shabafrouz 2010a), it is necessary to look for countermeasures aimed at improving these conditions.…”

“…The existence of these countries also suggests that the emergence or absence of conflict depends on some further conditions (Hegre/Sambanis 2006;Basedau/Lay 2009;Basedau/Mähler/Shabafrouz 2010). Context conditions that proved to be crucial are the level of resource abundance per capita and outside protection by international actors (Basedau/Lay 2009), the quality of political institutions, particularly at the beginning of resource extraction (Boschini/Petterson/Jesper 2004;Karl 2007), and the ownership structure in the resource sector (Weinthal/Luong 2006).…”

“…In this project a sample of four "comparable oil exporters" (in other words, Algeria, Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela) had been studied (cf. Basedau et al 2010). We discarded the case of…”

Does Uranium Mining Increase Civil Conflict Risk? Evidence from a Spatiotemporal Analysis of Africa from 1945 to 2010

“…Since then the discourse on the role of natural resources has been refined, taking into account the characteristics of specific resources, the modes of extraction and the conditions under which resources contribute to rebellion. Resources have been found to contribute to rebellion via three major mechanisms (Basedau et al 2011;Le Billon 2008;Humphreys 2005;Ross 2004b):…”

“…Whether these mechanisms do in fact operate in these ways depends on several resourcespecific (Basedau et al 2011;Le Billon 2009;Humphreys 2005) and contextual conditions (Dixon 2009;Fearon and Laitin 2003;Hegre and Sambanis 2006). For instance, resourcerelated motives derive from how revenues are distributed and whether resources are concentrated in ethnically distinct regions of a given country.…”