Revisiting the political economy of fiscal adjustments

Ziogas, Thanasis; Panagiotidis, Theodore

doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102312

Cited by 13 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…(2018) and Gootjes and de Haan (2022a) we employ random effects panel probit model to examine the effects of fiscal institutions on the probability of initiating a fiscal adjustment. As a robustness check, we also employ IV probit and heteroskedasticity probit model, to account for heteroscedasticity, which can result in issues such as biased and inconsistent parameters and incorrect standard errors (see Ziogas and Panagiotidis, 2021).…”

Section: Econometric Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of fiscal institutions on fiscal adjustments

Chrysanthakopoulos¹,

Tagkalakis²

2022

Working Paper

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Using a panel of 40 advanced economies over the period 1990-2020 this paper investigates the effect of various characteristics of fiscal councils and fiscal rules on the probability of starting a fiscal adjustment, as well as on the probability that this fiscal adjustment will be successful. The relevance of fiscal institutions’ characteristics is verified when considering alternative definitions of successful fiscal adjustments. Our results are robust after controlling for endogeneity of fiscal institutions’ characteristics (by the Augmented Inverse Probability Weighted estimator) with fiscal adjustments. We find that a fiscal rule with well specified escape clause, that has multi-year expenditure ceilings and excludes public investment can induce a successful fiscal adjustment. A fiscal council with enhanced remit, independence and accountability and extended tasks and instruments increase the probability of successful fiscal adjustments. Finally, we find that a fiscal council with extended tasks and instruments increase the probability of successful fiscal adjustments based on spending cuts.

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Section: Econometric Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of fiscal institutions on fiscal adjustments

Chrysanthakopoulos¹,

Tagkalakis²

2022

Working Paper

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“…Представляется необходимым в эконометрических и сателлитных моделях прогнозирования ИПЦ предусмотреть учет динамики мировых цен в разрезе его (индекса) основных компонентов: субиндексов цен на продовольственные товары, непродовольственные товары, услуги в соответствии с долей импорта в каждой составляющей. Особенно это актуально при прогнозировании динамики про- чиванию бюджетных программ и проектов и сокращению бюджетных средств, направляемых на финансирование национальной экономики [10].…”

Section: оценка обоснованности макроэкономических индикаторов федерал...unclassified

Financial Interrelations of scenario Indicators of budget Forecasting with Indicators of the Federal budget of Russia

Kosov,

Voronkova,

Chalova

2023

jour

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The realism of the scenario indicators used in the formation of the federal budget of the Russian Federation in the context of the special significance of the budgetary mechanism for the adaptation of the national economy to global challenges becomes of particular importance while maintaining internal and external sanctions risks. The purpose of this study is to assess the validity of the forecast values of scenario macroeconomic indicators that determine the key characteristics of the Russian federal budget in the current budget cycle, and to develop proposals for clarifying the composition and concretizing approaches to their forecasting for the medium term in conditions of increased uncertainty. The study is based on an abstract-logical method, including a critical analysis of the predictive values of macro-indicators adopted as the basis for the parameters of the federal budget of the Russian Federation in 2023 and the planned period of 2024 and 2025 (using the level of consumer prices and the exchange rate of the ruble as an example), establishing causal relationships between the reliability of projected budget parameters at the federal level and the state of the Russian economy, identifying possible directions for the development of approaches to forecasting initial indicators for the preparation of the federal budget. In particular, the article suggests that in the forecasting of basic scenario parameters to detail the accounting for the dynamics of world prices, the real effective exchange rate of the ruble, to optimize the selection of exchange rate factors, and to take into account the variability of exchange rate volatility. The author’s developments presented in the article contribute to the efficiency of the execution of the federal budget in terms of the use of its resources, and therefore can be used in the activities of state authorities in the development of budget policy.

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“…It has now been over a decade since the outbreak of the European Debt Crisis and there have been many studies of its causes as well as of the economic, political, social impacts and political implications (Shambaugh, 2012;Lane, 2012;Frieden and Walter, 2017;Ziogas & Panagiotidis, 2021;Katsanidou and Otkes, 2016;Ballas et al, 2017;Perez & Matsaganis, 2018). Amongst the first comprehensive studies is the work of Shambaugh (2012) who presented an analysis of three interlocking crises: a banking crisis pertaining to undercapitalized banks facing liquidity problems, a sovereign debt crisis, relating to the challenges facing a number of countries to fund themselves due to rising government bond yields and a growth crisis, pertaining to slow growth rates, with significant disparities between countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the Geography of Subjective Happiness in Europe During the Years of the Economic Crisis: A Multilevel Modelling Approach

Ballas

Thanis

2022

Soc Indic Res

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This article builds on the efforts by geographers and regional scientists aimed at adding a geographical dimension to the analysis and understanding of happiness and well-being. In particular, the article explores the changes in observed subjective wellbeing measures of residents in countries and regions that were mostly hit by the severe economic crisis and austerity measures. To that end, we present a multilevel modelling approach to the analysis of suitable secondary data derived from the European Social Survey (ESS), as well as relevant contextual regional-level data from Eurostat. The article first presents a brief overview of the state of the art in happiness and well-being research, with particular emphasis on the relatively limited but rapidly growing geographical studies, as well as studies by economists regarding the impact of austerity and inequality upon happiness and well-being. We then present key findings from a comprehensive analysis of European Social Survey data combined with austerity related data at the regional level in order to explore the geography of happiness and well-being in Europe amid times of economic gloom and severe austerity measures. The research presented in this article involves analysis of data before, during and after (or in towards the end of) the crisis and it is aimed at identifying geographical as well as individual socio-economic and demographic factors that may be affecting happiness and well-being and their possible interactions. The model outputs suggest that living in one of the ‘crisis countries’ has a negative impact on subjective happiness around the time when the short, medium and long term effects of the recession would be mostly felt, when compared to ‘Northern European’ countries (controlling for an extensive number of important covariates selected on the basis of previous work). In addition, the results suggest that the happiness levels in ‘crisis countries’ were higher than the Baltic countries in 2014 and 2016 and higher than the Central and Eastern European countries in 2016. An additional interesting finding is that at the time when the effects of the crisis would be mostly felt, populations born in the country where the ESS took place are on average (after controlling for all other covariates) less happy than those born abroad in one of the years (2014) after the breakout of the crisis.

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Revisiting the political economy of fiscal adjustments

Cited by 13 publications

References 50 publications

The effects of fiscal institutions on fiscal adjustments

The effects of fiscal institutions on fiscal adjustments

Financial Interrelations of scenario Indicators of budget Forecasting with Indicators of the Federal budget of Russia

Exploring the Geography of Subjective Happiness in Europe During the Years of the Economic Crisis: A Multilevel Modelling Approach

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