Revisiting the “Guns versus Butter” Argument in China (1950–2014): New Evidence from the Continuous Wavelet Analysis

Abstract

Abstract:The long-lasting "guns versus butter" argument reflects the fact that China has been experiencing a difficult choice in terms of improving the defense and social welfare sectors, and thus achieving fiscal sustainability. The result, however, is controversial. The present paper therefore re-examines the relationship between defense and social welfare by employing continuous wavelet analysis during a long period of 1950-2014 in China. We focus in particular on their dynamic correlation and the lead-lag relationship across different frequency bands. Our results clearly show the inexistence of the crowding-out effect between defense expenditure and social welfare; moreover, the increase in defense (social welfare) expenditure could stimulate the expansion of social welfare (defense) spending. In addition, we find a positive relationship between defense and social welfare with defense leading during 1961-1968 in the short term, when China suffered from the economic breakdown and the social turbulence caused by the Great Famine, Sino-Soviet border conflict, etc. Notably, social welfare also led the progress in defense during 1984-1988 and 1995-1998 in the medium and long terms by the further deepening of the opening-up policy and enforcing the economic system reform.