Revisiting the growth effects of fiscal policy: A Bayesian model averaging approach

Arın, K. Peren; Braunfels, Elias; Doppelhofer, Gernot

doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.103158

Cited by 13 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The budget policy in this study is proven to affect economic growth. This result is in line with the research of Arin et al (2019) that several budget policy variables have a close relationship with economic growth in the short and medium term. If local governments support tourism development by increasing tourism budgets and building tourism supporting infrastructure, more optimal economic growth can be achieved.…”

Section: The Effect Of Budget Policy On Economic Growthsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…If the local taxation policy implementation does not affect PAD, then its effect on economic growth also tends to be suboptimal. Research by Arin et al (2019) explained that it was necessary to adjust tax policy with income to produce optimal economic growth. By assuming local taxation policies can affect PAD, the sevents hypothesis built in this study is: H7: PAD plays a role in mediating the indirect effect of taxation policies on regional economic growth.…”

Section: Literature Review and Hypothesis Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to research Arin et al (2019) that several budget policies variabels had a close relationship with economic growth in the near and medium erm. Some of these budget policies were capital expenditures, education expenditures, to development priority program expenditures.…”

Section: The Relationship Between Budget Policies and Regional Economic Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional economic growth based on tourism, tax policy, and budget aspects

Hakim

Dewi

2021

jeb

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This study analyzes the determinants of regional economic growth and local government revenue (PAD) based on tourism, taxation, and budget policies in Kuningan District. This study uses the monthly data from 2015-2019 with 60 numbers of observations in total. Using the structural equation modeling partial least square (SEM-PLS), this study found that tourism, taxation, and budget policies directly affected regional economic growth. Neither does PAD affect regional economic growth nor mediate the indirect effect of tourism and taxation policies on economic growth. On the other hand, the budget policy can not moderate the influence of PAD on economic growth. This study also proves that the taxation policy reflected by the online-based tax collection system and the local tax increase budget positively affects PAD, while tourism can not affect it. This study implies that the local government of Kuningan need to focus on maximizing tourism sectors by directing the investment, budgets, and policies to develop its supporting industries.

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Section: The Effect Of Budget Policy On Economic Growthsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Literature Review and Hypothesis Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional economic growth based on tourism, tax policy, and budget aspects

Hakim

Dewi

2021

jeb

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“…Throughout the last two decades a number of prominent papers have contributed to this strand of literature, simultaneously extending the application of the BMA from simple cross-sectional regression to static and dynamic, even potentially non-linear panel approaches, e.g., [22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29]. BMA is also quite extensively used for macroeconomic analyses and forecasts [30][31][32][33]. In turn, the application of BMA is far less frequent in the financial literature.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Common Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia in the North American Oil and Gas Industry. A Panel BMA Approach

et al. 2020

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This study discovered market determinants of credit default swap (CDS) spreads in the North American oil and gas industry. Due to the limited theoretical background on market sources of CDS price fluctuations, we chose to alleviate model uncertainty and possible misspecification issues using Bayesian model averaging. This robust framework allowed us to aggregate results from a vast number of linear panel models estimated over the 2017–2020 period. We identified oil price volatility, major shifts in the OPEC+ supply policy, natural gas prices and industrial metal prices as the most robust determinants of CDS spreads. We show that following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices ceased to be a notably important determinant of credit risk, as factors indirectly related to oil prices, such as global and sectoral uncertainty, financial conditions and the macroeconomic stance became more influential. Additionally, we show that the CDS spreads of shale companies are determined by similar common factors, but they are more sensitive to the OPEC+ decisions on the global supply and are less affected by the domestic activity. Finally, we also prove that our modelling approach may help investors and risk officers to identify robust determinants behind the dynamics of credit risk.

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“…Recent literature recognizes the importance of fiscal policy on economic growth (Arin et al 2019 ; Attinasi and Klemm 2016 ). In particular, there is evidence that high levels of public debt are associated with low growth.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combination of economic policies: how the perfect storm wrecked the Brazilian economic growth

Mendonça

Valpassos

2022

Empir Econ

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This study uses a counterfactual analysis to investigate, from the Brazilian experience, the “perfect storm” resultant from the combination of economic policies on economic growth. Specifically, we analyze whether the combination of economic policies that neglect fiscal balance and low and stable inflation with the adoption of strategies to stimulate economic growth without considering the side effects on the economy harmed economic growth. Our findings, robust to several placebo tests, show Brazil’s growth rate is approximately 2.8 pp below the “synthetic Brazil” growth rate. Furthermore, comprehending the great shocks in the period under investigation, the complementary empirical analysis supports the view that the “perfect storm” is the main factor explaining the underperformance of the Brazilian economic growth. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00181-021-02167-4.

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Revisiting the growth effects of fiscal policy: A Bayesian model averaging approach

Cited by 13 publications

References 33 publications

Regional economic growth based on tourism, tax policy, and budget aspects

Regional economic growth based on tourism, tax policy, and budget aspects

Common Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia in the North American Oil and Gas Industry. A Panel BMA Approach

Combination of economic policies: how the perfect storm wrecked the Brazilian economic growth

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