Revisiting the extended Svalbard Airport monthly temperature series, and the compiled corresponding daily series 1898–2018

Nordli, Øyvind; Wyszyński, Przemysław; Gjelten, Herdis M.; Isaksen, Ketil; Łupikasza, Ewa; Niedźwiedź, Tadeusz; Przybylak, Rajmund

doi:10.33265/polar.v39.3614

Cited by 61 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…In higharctic and insular arctic food webs, it exploits both terrestrial and marine resources (Roth 2003, Ehrich et al 2015 and may therefore be affected by climate change through cascades in both food webs (Post et al 2009(Post et al , 2013. On the high-arctic Svalbard Archipelago, one of the fastestwarming locations on Earth (warming with an increase in annual ambient temperature of 3-5°C over the last 50 yr, Nordli et al 2020), rapidly increasing temperatures are causing drastic changes in both the marine and the terrestrial ecosystems (Descamps et al 2017). Spring sea ice in the fjords on the west coast of Svalbard provides arctic foxes with access to marine mammal prey and carrion Gjertz 1986, Hamilton et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contributions from terrestrial and marine resources stabilize predator populations in a rapidly changing climate

et al. 2021

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Climate change has different and sometimes divergent effects on terrestrial and marine food webs, and in coastal ecosystems, these effects are tightly interlinked. Responses of opportunistic coastal predators and scavengers to climate change may thus be complex and potentially highly flexible, and can simultaneously serve as indicators of, and have profound impacts on, lower trophic levels. Gaining mechanistic understanding of these responses is therefore important, but often not feasible due to lack of longterm data from marked individuals. Here, we used a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) to elucidate the effects of arctic warming and concurrent changes in terrestrial and marine resource availability on population dynamics of the opportunistic arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) in Svalbard. Joint analysis of four types of data (den survey, age-at-harvest, placental scars, mark-recovery) revealed relatively stable population size and age structure over the last 22 yr (1997-2019) despite rapid environmental change linked to climate warming. This was related to the fact that terrestrial resources (reindeer carcasses, geese) became more abundant while the availability of marine resources (seal pups/carrion) decreased, and was driven by divergent trends in different vital rates (e.g., increased pregnancy rate but decreased pup survival). Balanced contributions of survival vs. reproduction and of immigration vs. local demography further stabilized population size. Our study thus sheds light on the mechanisms underlying population dynamics of opportunistic carnivores exploiting terrestrial and marine resources and suggests that exploitation of resources across different ecosystems can buffer predators against climate change. Additionally, it highlights the large potential of IPMs as tools to understand and predict the effects of environmental change on wildlife populations, even when data on marked individuals are sparse.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contributions from terrestrial and marine resources stabilize predator populations in a rapidly changing climate

et al. 2021

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“…In the time period 2016 to 2020, all records display negative MARST, which indicates permafrost conditions at all locations (Table 5). Svalbard lies in the continuous permafrost zone (Brown et al, 1997;Obu et al, 2019), and deep permafrost is observed in the area, e.g., within the abandoned mine shafts (Liestøl, 1977) and in boreholes (Christiansen et al, 2010). We found that the exposition of the rock wall only leads to small differences in MARST.…”

Section: The Influence Of Open Water and Sea Ice On Rstmentioning

confidence: 46%

Surface temperatures and their influence on the permafrost thermal regime in high-Arctic rock walls on Svalbard

et al. 2021

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Abstract. Permafrost degradation in steep rock walls and associated slope destabilization have been studied increasingly in recent years. While most studies focus on mountainous and sub-Arctic regions, the occurring thermo-mechanical processes also play an important role in the high Arctic. A more precise understanding is required to assess the risk of natural hazards enhanced by permafrost warming in high-Arctic rock walls. This study presents one of the first comprehensive datasets of rock surface temperature measurements of steep rock walls in the high Arctic, comparing coastal and near-coastal settings. We applied the surface energy balance model CryoGrid 3 for evaluation, including adjusted radiative forcing to account for vertical rock walls. Our measurements comprise 4 years of rock surface temperature data from summer 2016 to summer 2020. Mean annual rock surface temperatures ranged from −0.6 in a coastal rock wall in 2017/18 to −4.3 ∘C in a near-coastal rock wall in 2019/20. Our measurements and model results indicate that rock surface temperatures at coastal cliffs are up to 1.5 ∘C higher than at near-coastal rock walls when the fjord is ice-free in winter, resulting from additional energy input due to higher air temperatures at the coast and radiative warming by relatively warm seawater. An ice layer on the fjord counteracts this effect, leading to similar rock surface temperatures to those in near-coastal settings. Our results include a simulated surface energy balance with shortwave radiation as the dominant energy source during spring and summer with net average seasonal values of up to 100 W m−2 and longwave radiation being the main energy loss with net seasonal averages between 16 and 39 W m−2. While sensible heat fluxes can both warm and cool the surface, latent heat fluxes are mostly insignificant. Simulations for future climate conditions result in a warming of rock surface temperatures and a deepening of active layer thickness for both coastal and near-coastal rock walls. Our field data present a unique dataset of rock surface temperatures in steep high-Arctic rock walls, while our model can contribute towards the understanding of factors influencing coastal and near-coastal settings and the associated surface energy balance.

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“…The existing longest chronological series of SAT for Svalbard Airport and Bjørnøya, proved that contemporary warming is the most prominent climatic event in the Arctic since the beginning of the research period (Overland et al ., 2012; Nordli et al ., 2014, 2020; Gjelten et al ., 2016). Our study showed that at both stations, the ETCAW manifested in SON and DJF.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Importance of regional indices of atmospheric circulation for periods of warming and cooling in Svalbard during 1920–2018

Łupikasza

Niedźwiedź

Przybylak

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The Arctic has experienced prominent climate warming, at the beginning of the 20th century and currently. Comparing the driving mechanism during these periods helps to explain the causes of contemporary climate change. Our study explores the impact of regional circulation on Svalbard's surface air temperature (SAT, 2 m above ground). We used air temperature data from Svalbard Airport, Bjørnøya stations, and three regional circulation indices that describe the frequency of cyclonic conditions, zonal circulation, and meridional circulation. The indices were calculated for four circulation areas with differing circulation conditions and, therefore, may have various impacts on long-term changes in SAT. This was checked for the entire study period , and 30-year sub-periods representing the most prominent climatic events: the early 20th-century Arctic warming (ETCAW), contemporary Arctic warming (CAW), and a cold period between them (CAP). In autumn and winter, the deviations in SAT from the long-term average during warm and cold periods were almost twice as large at Svalbard Airport as at Bjørnøya. In these seasons, the ETCAW was significantly warmer than the subsequent cold period, which was not the case for summer and spring. However, long-term trends in the regional circulation indices were more evident in summer and spring than in autumn and winter. Air temperature was the most strongly influenced by meridional circulation over the eastern circulation areas, with the exception of spring, when air temperature variability was more affected by zonal circulation.The recent warming weakened the relationship between SAT and the indices in summer. We attributed the ETCAW in autumn to a southerly advection of sensible heat. During the same historical period, the impact of the indices was much weaker in winter. In winter during the CAP, there was a higher frequency of northern air advection, particularly over the northern part of the Greenland Sea.

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Revisiting the extended Svalbard Airport monthly temperature series, and the compiled corresponding daily series 1898–2018

Cited by 61 publications

References 42 publications

Contributions from terrestrial and marine resources stabilize predator populations in a rapidly changing climate

Contributions from terrestrial and marine resources stabilize predator populations in a rapidly changing climate

Surface temperatures and their influence on the permafrost thermal regime in high-Arctic rock walls on Svalbard

Importance of regional indices of atmospheric circulation for periods of warming and cooling in Svalbard during 1920–2018

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