2021
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2106.07998
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Revisiting the Calibration of Modern Neural Networks

Abstract: Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainty (model calibration) is essential for the safe application of neural networks. Many instances of miscalibration in modern neural networks have been reported, suggesting a trend that newer, more accurate models produce poorly calibrated predictions. Here, we revisit this question for recent state-of-the-art image classification models. We systematically relate model calibration and accuracy, and find that the most recent models, notably those not using convolutions, … Show more

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Cited by 9 publications
(15 citation statements)
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References 28 publications
(46 reference statements)
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“…Hence, in detection and segmentation, the calibration of a model is mainly determined by its architecture, and not by its size. These observations are in line with the results in image classification [Minderer et al, 2021].…”
Section: Model Calibrationsupporting
confidence: 92%
See 3 more Smart Citations
“…Hence, in detection and segmentation, the calibration of a model is mainly determined by its architecture, and not by its size. These observations are in line with the results in image classification [Minderer et al, 2021].…”
Section: Model Calibrationsupporting
confidence: 92%
“…Here, we extend the reliability study of CNNs and VTs [Minderer et al, 2021] for detection and segmentation and report the results for in-distribution data. Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and Maximum Calibration Error (MCE) [Naeini et al, 2015] are common metrics used to measure the calibration error of a neural network in classification.…”
Section: Model Calibrationmentioning
confidence: 94%
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“…When a model is highly confident in its prediction yet it is not accurate, such classifier is overconfident; otherwise it is under-confident. It is well-known that the regular NNs are over-confident [23,36] and (non-DP) BNNs are more calibrated [35]. In Table 3 On MLP, the Gaussian prior (or weight decay) significantly improves the MCE, in the non-DP regime and furthermore in the DP regime.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%