Revisiting the 1877 Cataclysmic Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano by a Cellular Automata Model and Implications for Future Events

Lupiano, Valeria; Machado, Guillermo; Gregorio, Salvatore Di

doi:10.1145/3207677.3278665

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…The present LLUNPIY model (lahar modeling by local rules based on an underlying pick of yoked processes, from the Quechua word "llunp'iy", meaning flood) is based on the CA computational paradigm for simulating primary and secondary lahars according to a general methodology developed for surface flows [19]. LLUNPIY was applied and validated in its various versions to past volcanic events, such as the 2005 and 2008 secondary lahars of Vascún Valley, Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador [20][21][22][23][24][25], as well as the 1877 lahars flowing along the Río Cutuchi, Cotopaxi Volcano [20], and it was also applied to forecast future probable events [26,27].…”

Section: Approaches To Numerical Simulation Of Laharsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper, we apply to the area north of the Cotopaxi Volcano the same CA approaches we adopted in the preliminary simulations of the Cotopaxi's west and southward 1877 lahars [21,[23][24][25][26], in order to get significant insights into the hazards that future similar events can cause.…”

Section: Adopted Criteria In the Llunpiy Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Outflow computation is performed in two steps: determination of the outflows f i toward the neighbor i, 1 ≤ i ≤ 6 according to the algorithm for the minimization of differences (AMD) [14,19], and determination of the shift of the outflows [21,[23][24][25][26][27].…”

Section: Lahar Outflowsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The CA LLUNPIY model specifically explores the effects of volcanic lahars within the geological and morphological setting of the Cotopaxi Volcano north region in order to simulate the 1877 primary lahar, following the good outcome of the simulation of the 1877 lahars invading the southern region [23,26]. The propagation of a lahar along the northern sector, with magnitude similar to that of 1877, was simulated using a digital elevation model (DEM) of recent acquisition.…”

Section: Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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LLUNPIY Simulations of the 1877 Northward Catastrophic Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador) for a Contribution to Forecasting the Hazards

et al. 2021

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LLUNPIY (lahar modeling by local rules based on an underlying pick of yoked processes, from the Quechua word “llunp’iy“, meaning flood) is a cellular automata (CA) model that simulates primary and secondary lahars, here applied to replicate those that occurred during the huge 1877 Cotopaxi Volcano eruption. The lahars flowing down the southwestern flanks of the volcano were already satisfactorily simulated in previous investigations of ours, assuming two possible different triggering mechanisms, i.e., the sudden and homogeneous melting of the summit ice and snow cap due to pyroclastic flows and the melting of the glacier parts hit by free-falling pyroclastic bombs after being upwardly ejected during the volcanic eruption. In a similar fashion, we apply here the CA LLUNPIY model to simulate the 1877 lahars sprawling out the Cotopaxi northern slopes and eventually impacting densely populated areas. Our preliminary results indicate that several important public infrastructures (among them the regional potable water supply system) and the Valle de Los Chillos and other Quito suburban areas might be devastated by northward-bound lahars, should a catastrophic Cotopaxi eruption comparable to the 1877 one occur in the near future.

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Section: Approaches To Numerical Simulation Of Laharsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Adopted Criteria In the Llunpiy Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Lahar Outflowsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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LLUNPIY Simulations of the 1877 Northward Catastrophic Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador) for a Contribution to Forecasting the Hazards

et al. 2021

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“…Simultaneously, Ordóñez et al (2013) and Pistolesi et al (2014) estimated inundation areas with LAHARZ (Ordóñez et al, 2013; Pistolesi et al, 2014) but could not reproduce initial lahar formation because the model neglects dynamic bulking processes on the volcano flank. Lupiano et al (2018) included glacier melting and erosion processes of syneruptive lahars from Cotopaxi with the use of LLUNPIY, but there the model is not calibrated and validated to an historic event using reproducible constraints.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling future lahars controlled by different volcanic eruption scenarios at Cotopaxi (Ecuador) calibrated with the massively destructive 1877 lahar

Frimberger

Andrade

Weber

et al. 2021

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Lahars are among the most hazardous mass flow processes on earth and have caused up to 23 000 casualties in single events in the recent past. The Cotopaxi volcano, 60 km southeast of Quito, has a well-documented history of massively destructive lahars and is a hotspot for future lahars due to (i) its $10 km 2 glacier cap, (ii) its 117-147-year return period of (Sub)-Plinian eruptions, and (iii) the densely populated potential inundation zones (300 000 inhabitants). Previous mechanical lahar models often do not (i) capture the steep initial lahar trajectory, (ii) reproduce multiple flow paths including bifurcation and confluence, and (iii) generate appropriate key parameters like flow speed and pressure at the base as a measure of erosion capacity. Here, we back-calculate the well-documented 1877 lahar using the RAMMS debris flow model with an implemented entrainment algorithm, covering the entire lahar path from the volcano edifice to an extent of $70 km from the source. To evaluate the sensitivity and to constrain the model input range, we systematically explore input parameter values, especially the Voellmy-Salm friction coefficients μ and ξ. Objective selection of the most likely parameter combinations enables a realistic and robust lahar hazard representation. Detailed historic records for flow height, flow velocity, peak discharge, travel time and inundation limits match best with a very low Coulomb-type friction μ (0.0025-0.005) and a high turbulent friction ξ (1000-1400 m/s 2). Finally, we apply the calibrated model to future eruption scenarios (Volcanic Explosivity Index = 2-3, 3-4, >4) at Cotopaxi and accordingly scaled lahars. For the first time, we anticipate a potential volume growth of 50-400% due to lahar erosivity on steep volcano flanks. Here we develop a generic Voellmy-Salm approach across different scales of high-magnitude lahars and show how it can be used to anticipate future syneruptive lahars.

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A First Simulation of the Impact upon the Hidroagoyán Dam Due to Lahars Triggered by an 1877-Type Cotopaxi Eruption in Ecuador

et al. 2022

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We forecast the impact that the lahars triggered on the summit of the Cotopaxi volcano in Ecuador would have upon the Hidroagoyán Dam should an 1877-type catastrophic eruption occur nowadays, with disastrous implications for the energy production of Ecuador. The Cotopaxi’ lahars have been simulated with the use of different computational models, yet none of them were so extended as to map their entire path to the dam. To fill this gap, we applied a version of the semi-empirical Cellular Automata LLUNPIY model to simulate primary and secondary lahars flowing from the summit of the Cotopaxi volcano until they reach the Hidroagoyán Dam in Baños. This version of LLUNPIY accounts for the triggering event by pyroclastic bombs and has already been validated by its successful simulation of the northbound 1877 cataclysmic lahars of the Cotopaxi volcano. The likely consequences of a similar disaster are discussed considering present territorial conditions. Computer simulations of natural hazards of this type represent a powerful tool that can be used when planning for the mitigation of environmental and social risks.

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Revisiting the 1877 Cataclysmic Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano by a Cellular Automata Model and Implications for Future Events

Cited by 3 publications

References 19 publications

LLUNPIY Simulations of the 1877 Northward Catastrophic Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador) for a Contribution to Forecasting the Hazards

LLUNPIY Simulations of the 1877 Northward Catastrophic Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador) for a Contribution to Forecasting the Hazards

Modelling future lahars controlled by different volcanic eruption scenarios at Cotopaxi (Ecuador) calibrated with the massively destructive 1877 lahar

A First Simulation of the Impact upon the Hidroagoyán Dam Due to Lahars Triggered by an 1877-Type Cotopaxi Eruption in Ecuador

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