Revisiting negative externalities of US military bases: the case of Okinawa

Abstract

In a recently published article, Allen et al. (Outside the wire: U.S. military deployments and public opinion in host states’, American Political Science Review, 114(2), 326–341; 2020) argue that US military deployments nurture favorable attitudes toward the United States among foreign citizens. Their claim is based on social contact and economic compensation theories, applied to a large-scale cross-national survey project funded by the US government. However, their analysis disregards the geographical concentration of US military facilities within the host countries. To examine the relevance of geography and assess both positive and negative externalities, we focus on Japan – a notable case given its status as the country hosting the largest number of US military personnel in the world. We show that residents of Okinawa, a small prefecture hosting 70% of US military facilities within Japan have considerably unfavorable attitudes toward the US military presence in their prefecture. They hold this negative sentiment specifically toward the bases in Okinawa regardless of their contact with Americans and economic benefits and their general support for the US military presence within Japan. Our findings support an alternative theory of not-in-my-backyard. They also shed light on the importance of local foreign public opinion for foreign policy analysis and call for a more balanced scholarly debate on the externalities of the global US military presence.

Does Russian election interference damage support for US alliances? The case of Japan

“…These "baseline" estimates are similar to the findings from previous studies on Japanese people's attitudes toward the U.S. Hikotani, Horiuchi, and Tago 2022). The fairly high level of support for the U.S. helps us avoid the problem of "floor effects," which could result in the attenuation of our treatment effects.…”

“…Specifically, the average values of our dependent variables, which we explain shortly, for the control group show that Japanese people have a decent amount of faith in the United States as an ally. 10 These “baseline” estimates are similar to the findings from previous studies on Japanese people’s attitudes toward the United States (Agadjanian and Horiuchi, 2020; Hikotani et al, 2022). The fairly high level of support for the United States helps us avoid the problem of “floor effects,” which could result in the attenuation of our treatment effects.…”

“…Details of this procedure are provided in Section B of the Supplementary Materials, but we note here that the block randomization also allows us to segregate respondents resident in Okinawa Prefecture, who may be distinct from those in other prefectures for geographic and political reasons when it comes to U.S.-Japan relations. Okinawa Prefecture is a relatively small prefecture that hosts a heavy U.S. military presence, including 32 separate facilities and roughly half of the 50,000 U.S. troops stationed in Japan (Hikotani, Horiuchi, and Tago 2022).…”