Revisiting Fold-Change Calculation: Preference for Median or Geometric Mean over Arithmetic Mean-Based Methods

Abstract

Background: Fold change is widely used in biomedical research to quantify the magnitude of group differences in omics variables. However, the exact calculation method is often not reported, leading to inconsistent results. This study re-evaluates different fold-change calculation methods and provides a clear preference. Methods: Data scenarios with different distributions of treatment/test and reference data were created to challenge the assumption of interchangeable calculation methods. The main difference lies in the definition of the expected values of the groups used to calculate the log ratio, which is the basis of the fold change calculation. In addition, a multi-omics biomedical dataset was analyzed. Results: Using the arithmetic mean as the expected value for the treatment and reference groups resulted in incorrect fold change values more frequently than other methods, especially when the standard deviations between subgroups differed widely. Conclusions: The inferior arithmetic mean method is often perceived as the standard, although mathematically different equations are possible that differ mainly in the estimation of the expected value. Alternatives that define expectation by median, geometric mean, or paired fold change combinations are less susceptible to violations of equal variances or similar treatment/reference distributions.