Revisiting Economic Shocks and Coups

Kim, Nam Kyu

doi:10.1177/0022002713520531

Cited by 87 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Patterns such as the forcible removal of rulers (157)(158)(159)(160) can be tied to fluctuations in climate, but attributing societal collapse to climate is more difficult because there are fewer events. Nonetheless, several historical cases are compelling, such as the collapse of the Akkadian (161), Mayan (162), and Angkor (163) empires, dynastic changes in China (164), and major transitions in Europe (165).…”

Section: Social Interactions: Institutional Breakdown and State Failurementioning

confidence: 99%

Social and economic impacts of climate

Carleton

Hsiang

2016

Science

897

509

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BACKGROUND: For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research has begun to illuminate key linkages in the coupling of these complex natural and human systems, uncovering notable effects of climate on health, agriculture, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics.ADVANCES: Past scholars of climate-society interactions were limited to theorizing on the basis of anecdotal evidence; advances in computing, data availability, and study design now allow researchers to draw generalizable causal inferences tying climatic events to social outcomes. This endeavor has demonstrated that a range of climate factors have substantial influence on societies and economies, both past and present, with important implications for the future.Temperature, in particular, exerts remarkable influence over human systems at many social scales; heat induces mortality, has lasting impact on fetuses and infants, and incites aggression and violence while lowering human productivity. High temperatures also damage crops, inflate electricity demand, and may trigger population movements within and across national borders. Tropical cyclones cause mortality, damage assets, and reduce economic output for long periods. Precipitation extremes harm economies and populations predominately in agriculturally dependent settings. These effects are often quantitatively substantial; for example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields roughly 48%, warming trends since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by 11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by 0.28 percentage points year −1 . Much research aims to forecast impacts of future climate change, but we point out that society may also benefit from attending to ongoing impacts of climate in the present, because current climatic conditions impose economic and social burdens on populations today that rival in magnitude the projected end-ofcentury impacts of climate change. For instance, we calculate that current temperature climatologies slow global economic growth roughly 0.25 percentage points year −1 , comparable to the additional slowing of 0.28 percentage points year −1 projected from future warming. Both current and future losses can theoretically be avoided if populations adapt to fully insulate themselves from the climate-why this has not already occurred everywhere remains a critical open question. For example, clear patterns of adaptation in health impacts and in response to tropical cyclones contrast strongly with limited adaptation in agricultural and macroeconomic responses to temperature. Although some theories suggest these various levels of adaptation ought to be economically optimal, in the sense that costs of additional adaptive actions should exactly balance the benefits of avoided climate-related losses, there is no evidence that allows us to determine how closely observed "adaptation...

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Section: Social Interactions: Institutional Breakdown and State Failurementioning

confidence: 99%

Social and economic impacts of climate

Carleton

Hsiang

2016

Science

897

509

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“…Loss of income from agriculture and pastoralism may increase the motivation and lower the opportunity cost of joining a rebellion (Miguel et al 2004, Fjelde 2015. Similarly, agricultural deficit may add financial strains to weak regimes through loss of tax revenues and foreign exchange earnings and more costly food imports, draining funding away from other government sectors and rendering challenges to state governance, including coups d'état, more viable (Homer-Dixon 1999, Kim 2015). More generally, agricultural decline may cause livelihood contraction and famine and amplify existing social inequalities, leading to deprivation-related communal conflicts and rioting (Barnett and Adger 2007, Raleigh and Kniveton 2012, Kelley et al 2015.…”

Section: Food Insecurity and Political Violencementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Buhaug

Benjaminsen

Sjaastad

et al. 2015

Environ. Res. Lett.

124

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Earlier research that reports a correlational pattern between climate anomalies and violent conflict routinely refers to drought-induced agricultural shocks and adverse economic spillover effects as a key causal mechanism linking the two phenomena. Comparing half a century of statistics on climate variability, food production, and political violence across Sub-Saharan Africa, this study offers the most precise and theoretically consistent empirical assessment to date of the purported indirect relationship. The analysis reveals a robust link between weather patterns and food production where more rainfall generally is associated with higher yields. However, the second step in the causal model is not supported; agricultural output and violent conflict are only weakly and inconsistently connected, even in the specific contexts where production shocks are believed to have particularly devastating social consequences. Although this null result could, in theory, be fully compatible with recent reports of food price-related riots, it suggests that the wider socioeconomic and political context is much more important than drought and crop failures in explaining violent conflict in contemporary Africa.

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“…Similarly, studies using weather to explain food prices all found an effect on less organized forms of violence [52•-54]. Whereas one study testing the effect of weather shocks on economic growth on coup risk found an effect [55], a related analysis on civil conflict onset failed to [56]. In aggregate, no results are in the opposite of the hypothesized direction, and a majority of results are marginally significant (10%) or higher.…”

Section: Empirical Studies 2014-2017mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although not implying consensus on weather shocks driving collective violence via these channels, it illustrates that contrary results are unlikely. Both panels A and B show that civil conflicts are not triggered by weather shocks even if modeled according to specific theoretical mechanisms such as food production [15], economic growth [56], disaster destruction [46], or migration [44]. For civil conflict incidence, intensity, and in particular, other more loosely organized forms of violence (excluding communal conflicts), there is some evidence of consensus.…”

Section: Empirical Studies 2014-2017mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Violence: Insights from Political Science

Theisen

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Purpose of Review The aim of this review is to understand the state of the art of research related to climate change and collectively organized violence from a broad political science perspective. Recent Findings An increasing share of quantitative studies find a link between weather anomalies and violence for some forms of violence, but the directions are not always consistent and the mechanisms are not satisfactorily understood. Nonnaturalist scholars note important reservations. Summary Important improvements have been made during the last few years, but much remains to conclude that climate change will increase the risk of violence. An increased focus on the political consequences of adaptation and mitigation is needed.

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Revisiting Economic Shocks and Coups

Cited by 87 publications

References 51 publications

Social and economic impacts of climate

Social and economic impacts of climate

Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Climate Change and Violence: Insights from Political Science

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