Revision of Time-Independent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Alaska

Boyd, Oliver S.; Mueller, Charles S.; Bufe, Charles G.; Frankel, Arthur; Petersen, Mark D.

doi:10.3133/ofr20071043

Cited by 48 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Previous studies of Quaternary faults and ridge spreading rates provide additional strain rate and style constraints (Fig. 1B;Plafker et al, 1994;Lundgren et al, 1995;Matmon et al, 2006;Leonard et al, 2007;Wesson et al, 2007;Carver and Plafker, 2008;Kalbas et al, 2008;Fig. DR1; Table DR2).…”

Section: Kinematic Model Parametersmentioning

confidence: 98%

Kinematics of a diffuse North America–Pacific–Bering plate boundary in Alaska and western Canada

Finzel

Flesch

Ridgway

2011

Geology

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Inconsistencies between regional seismicity and block tectonic models, the recent recognition of the Bering plate, and the availability of global positioning system data motivated a large-scale kinematic analysis of Alaska and western Canada. We provide a synoptic view of the neotectonics of the region through kinematic modeling of the longterm strain rate and velocity fi eld constrained by geologic and geophysical observations. Our results provide evidence that a wide zone of diffuse deformation defi nes the boundaries between the North America, Pacifi c, and Bering plates, and that the relative motion between these plates may be the source for much of the modern deformation.

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Section: Kinematic Model Parametersmentioning

confidence: 98%

Kinematics of a diffuse North America–Pacific–Bering plate boundary in Alaska and western Canada

Finzel

Flesch

Ridgway

2011

Geology

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“…Parameters are obtained from the literature and knowledge of regional tectonics and geodynamics (e.g. Johnson and Satake, 1993;Wesson et al, 2007;Lamarche et al, 2010Lamarche et al, , 2015Shao et al, 2011;Goff et al, 2011bGoff et al, , 2012. Very large, plausible earthquakes for each seismogenic region are estimated as a first-order guide to assess potential tsunami behaviour, supported by observational data where possible, e.g.…”

Section: Tsunamigenic-earthquake Scenarios and Fault Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Johnson and Satake, 1993Johnson et al, 1994Johnson et al, , 1996Wesson et al, 2007). The 1957 M w = 8.6 Andreanof Islands earthquake had a very long rupture length of 850 km and 10 m of slip (Johnson et al, 1994).…”

Section: Tsunamigenic-earthquake Scenarios and Fault Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tsunami hazard potential for the equatorial southwestern Pacific atolls of Tokelau from scenario-based simulations

Orpin

Rickard

Gerring

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Devastating tsunami over the last decade have significantly heightened awareness of the potential consequences and vulnerability of low-lying Pacific islands and coastal regions. Our appraisal of the potential tsunami hazard for the atolls of the Tokelau Islands is based on a tsunami source-propagation-inundation model using Gerris Flow Solver, adapted from the companion study by Lamarche et al. (2015) for the islands of Wallis and Futuna. We assess whether there is potential for tsunami flooding on any of the village islets from a selection of 14 earthquake-source experiments. These earthquake sources are primarily based on the largest Pacific earthquakes of M w ≥ 8.1 since 1950 and other large credible sources of tsunami that may impact Tokelau. Earthquake-source location and moment magnitude are related to tsunami-wave amplitudes and tsunami flood depths simulated for each of the three atolls of Tokelau. This approach yields instructive results for a community advisory but is not intended to be fully deterministic. Rather, the underlying aim is to identify credible sources that present the greatest potential to trigger an emergency response.Results from our modelling show that wave fields are channelled by the bathymetry of the Pacific basin in such a way that the swathes of the highest waves sweep immediately northeast of the Tokelau Islands. Our limited simulations suggest that trans-Pacific tsunami from distant earthquake sources to the north of Tokelau pose the most significant inundation threat. In particular, our assumed worst-case scenario for the Kuril Trench generated maximum modelledwave amplitudes in excess of 1 m, which may last a few hours and include several wave trains. Other sources can impact specific sectors of the atolls, particularly distant earthquakes from Chile and Peru, and regional earthquake sources to the south. Flooding is dependent on the wave orientation and direct alignment to the incoming tsunami.Our "worst-case" tsunami simulations of the Tokelau Islands suggest that dry areas remain around the villages, which are typically built on a high islet. Consistent with the oral history of little or no perceived tsunami threat, simulations from the recent Tohoku and Chile earthquake sources suggest only limited flooding around low-lying islets of the atoll. Where potential tsunami flooding is inferred from the modelling, recommended minimum evacuation heights above local sea level are compiled, with particular attention paid to variations in tsunami flood depth around the atolls, subdivided into directional quadrants around each atoll. However, complex wave behaviours around the atolls, islets, tidal channels and within the lagoons are also observed in our simulations. Wave amplitudes within the lagoons may exceed 50 cm, increasing any inundation and potential hazards on the inner shoreline of the atolls, which in turn may influence evacuation strategies. Our study shows that indicative simulation studies can be achieved even with only basic field information. In part, this ...

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“…Since publication of the seminal paper (Atwater, 1987), and widespread adoption of well-tested field and analytical methods (e.g. Atwater and Hemphill-Haley, 1997;Hayward et al, 2006;Kelsey, 2015;Nelson, 2015;Nelson et al, 1996;Witter, 2015) debate moved on to questions critical for hazard assessment, emergency planning and international building code design (Mueller et al, 2015;Wesson et al, 2007). Key questions include the extent of past great earthquake ruptures (a proxy for magnitude), the identification of the boundaries between rupture segments, the persistence of these boundaries over multiple earthquake cycles, recurrence intervals of great earthquakes in each segment, the role of aseismic slip, and whether segments of plate boundaries that are currently creeping can generate great earthquakes Goldfinger et al, 2012;Hayward et al, 2015;Kelsey et al, 2015;Mueller et al, 2015;Scholz, 2014;Witter et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introduction and Structure Of The Papermentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection limits of tidal-wetland sequences to identify variable rupture modes of megathrust earthquakes

Shennan

Garrett

Barlow

2016

Quaternary Science Reviews

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Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details. earthquakes. We conclude that coastal paleoseismological studies benefit from a methodological framework that employs rigorous evaluation of five essential criteria and a sixth which may be very robust but only occur at some sites: 1 -lateral extent of peat-mud or mud-peat couplets with sharp contacts; 2 -suddenness of submergence or emergence, and replicated within each site; 3 -amount of vertical motion, quantified with 95% error terms and replicated within each site; 4 -syncroneity of submergence and emergence based on statistical age modelling; 5 -spatial pattern of submergence and emergence; 6 -possible additional evidence, such as evidence of a tsunami or liquefaction concurrent with submergence or emergence. We suggest that it is possible to consider detection limits as low as 0.1 to 0.2 m coseismic vertical change. Introduction and structure of the paperCoastal paleoseismology provides critical information that helps to improve understanding and modelling of seismic hazards, including associated tsunami, at all major subduction zones. Key contributions to practical earthquake hazard assessment include the identification of great (magnitude 8 or 9) earthquakes during the Holocene where there is no historical record (Atwater, 1987); earthquakes of substantially greater magnitude than directly observed (Minoura et al., 2001;Sawai et al., 2008); estimating recurrence intervals of great earthquakes (Atwater and HemphillHaley, 1997;Nelson et al., 1995); and defining different patterns of rupture along a subduction zone (Cisternas et al., 2005;Kelsey et al., 2002;Nelson et al., 2006;Sawai et al., 2004). Since publication of the seminal paper (Atwater, 1987), and widespread adoption of well-tested field and analytical methods (e.g. Atwater and Hemphill-Haley, 1997;Hayward et al., 2006;Kelsey, 2015;Nelson, 2015;Nelson et al., 1996;Witter, 2015) debate moved on to questions critical for hazard assessment, emergency planning and international building code design (Mueller et al., 2015;Wesson et al., 2007). Key questions include the extent of past great earthquake ruptures (a proxy for magnitude), the identification of the boundaries between rupture segments, the persistence of these boundaries over multiple earthquake cycles, recurrence intervals of great earthquakes in each segment, the role of aseismic slip, and whether segments of plate boundaries that are currently creeping can generate great earthquakes Goldfinger et al., 2012;Hayward et al., 2015;Kelsey et al., 2015;Mueller...

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Revision of Time-Independent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Alaska

Cited by 48 publications

References 24 publications

Kinematics of a diffuse North America–Pacific–Bering plate boundary in Alaska and western Canada

Kinematics of a diffuse North America–Pacific–Bering plate boundary in Alaska and western Canada

Tsunami hazard potential for the equatorial southwestern Pacific atolls of Tokelau from scenario-based simulations

Detection limits of tidal-wetland sequences to identify variable rupture modes of megathrust earthquakes

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