Revised estimates of one-day probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for India

Rakhecha, P. R.; Clark, Colin

doi:10.1017/s1350482799001280

Cited by 37 publications

(44 citation statements)

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“…Such a time period is very long compared with the length of records. If a realistic probability scale is constructed and the frequency curve extrapolated to 10 6 years then remarkably similar estimates of PMP are obtained (Rakhecha & Clark, 1999a) with a further example being shown in Table 2 for the Almatti dam site. This is because the increase in rainfall depth after 10 6 years is minimal: in the case of Gulbarga in Karnataka State it is an increase of less than 5% for an increase in return period of 9 × 10 6 years.…”

Section: Derivation Of Point Pmp Maps For Two-and Three-day Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 58%

“…The methods of storm transposition and maximisation of the storm events are well known (WMO, 1986), and are described in brief by Rakhecha & Clark (1999a). The allowance for an increase in elevation was for no change up to 300 m; an increase of 10% for each rise of 300 m above 300 m for the first upslope; and on the lee side of hills a decrease of rainfall of 5% for every 300 m descent.…”

Section: Rainfall Data and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The pattern of three-day PMP is broadly the same as for two-day PMP, but the values are much higher over Gujarat, the Western Ghats, and to a lesser extent, eastern India. These broad patterns, which are mirrored in the distribution of one-day PMP (Rakhecha & Clark, 1999a) need some explanation. Almost all major storms are monsoonal in nature, derived from the advection of large tropical air masses towards India from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.…”

Section: Derivation Of Point Pmp Maps For Two-and Three-day Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(a) The mapped values in Figures 3 and 4 refer to an area of 10 km 2 as derived from depth area analysis (Rakhecha & Clark, 1999a). Prior to 1950, one raingauge in India represented an area of 1220 km 2 , while by 1996 this was about 600 km 2 .…”

Section: Derivation Of Point Pmp Maps For Two-and Three-day Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, the distribution of rainfall for notable storm events has been mapped and the areal average rainfall depth published. Recently, revised estimates of one-day PMP have been produced (Rakhecha & Clark, 1999a). However, some catchment areas have a response time of more than one day, and where the effect of reservoir lag time is included, the magnitude of storm durations in excess of one day are needed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Point and areal PMP estimates for durations of two and three days in India

Rakhecha¹,

Clark²

2000

Meteorological Applications

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The risk of dam failure in India, coupled with better analysis of extreme storm events, has led to the estimation of revised one‐day probable maximum precipitation (PMP). For some water conservation projects where the catchment area is very large, there is a need to have estimates of PMP for durations of both two and three days. These are provided in this paper. It was found that the two‐day PMP over the Indian region varied from 100 cm over the central peninsula to over 290 cm in eastern India. For a duration of three days the corresponding values are 120 cm and 370 cm. For water management projects which include impounding reservoirs, an estimate has been made of the probable maximum flood (PMF) based on the new PMP estimates. The results of the design flood estimates were compared with existing estimates at the same sites and in most cases were found to be considerably higher. A comparison of the revised estimates of PMF and recorded floods in India shows that the trend of the rates of runoff in relation to catchment area differ by an average of 38% for an area of 1000 km2 and 46% for an area of 10 000 km2. These results show that some dams in India may be unsafe in the event of the probable maximum flood. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society

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Section: Derivation Of Point Pmp Maps For Two-and Three-day Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 58%

Section: Rainfall Data and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Derivation Of Point Pmp Maps For Two-and Three-day Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Derivation Of Point Pmp Maps For Two-and Three-day Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Point and areal PMP estimates for durations of two and three days in India

Rakhecha¹,

Clark²

2000

Meteorological Applications

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Book reviews

2000

Weather

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Readers are invited to contribute short questions on any meteorological wpic. We will endeavour to obtain answers to all submimd questions. ContrailsThe May Day holiday on 3 May 1999 was fine and sunny over much of Britain and in the afternoon few people at Dover were aware of thin cirrostratus increasing from the south-west. The surface wind was north-east, force 5.At about 1505BsT the contrails of two highflying aircraft were visible in the cirrostratus on a south-east to north-west course. The first had a small contrail which was of short duration, but in spite of their nearness the second aircraft had a long unbroken contrail which thickened and later became discontinuous into conspicuous high cloud of its own making. This lasted 20 minutes.Were the differences in these contrails due to a difference in height, a difference in the type of aircraft, or to some other factor? One sees many different types of contrails. Some criss-cross the sky, others develop a cumuliform structure, occasion- Book reviewsAtlas of probable maximum precipitation -India by P. R. Rakhecha and C. Clark.Charldon Publications, Shute Lane, Bruton, Somerset B A~O ON. 1999. 29 pp. Softback

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The hydro‐meteorological estimation of probable maximum precipitation under varying scenarios in Sri Lanka

Fernando

Wickramasuriya

2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is widely used as an input in rainfall-runoff modelling to estimate probable maximum flood (PMF), which is required for the design of spillways of large dams. In relation to dam safety studies at 32 dam sites, an analysis was done of extreme rainfalls in Sri Lanka, which is influenced by the Asian monsoon system and cyclonic effects. Accordingly, the Hershfield's statistical method, which is one of the recommended procedures of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), was used for estimating PMP. It is also a technique that can be readily used in design office practice. However, it is of significant value and scientific interest to explore what the outcome would have been if the physically based hydro-meteorological procedure had been adopted. For this purpose, long series of annual maximum daily rainfall data from seven stations were analysed. The research shows that the maximum moisture and corresponding wind run or the use of maximum moisture alone are two scenarios, which yield results compatible with the statistical PMP. Although globally there is a tendency to exclude wind maximization, this does not automatically apply to a country like Sri Lanka, which experiences cyclonic rainfall and special attention should be paid to precipitation efficiency. These results are further confirmed by a frequency analysis based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. An approximate value of PMP could be in the order of 2.0-3.0 times the maximum observed daily rainfall. However, this aspect needs further investigation when observed maxima are near PMP storms.

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Revised estimates of one-day probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for India

Cited by 37 publications

References 4 publications

Point and areal PMP estimates for durations of two and three days in India

Point and areal PMP estimates for durations of two and three days in India

Book reviews

The hydro‐meteorological estimation of probable maximum precipitation under varying scenarios in Sri Lanka

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