Review of the Epidemiological Situation on Ixodic Tick-Borne Borrelioses in the Russian Federation in 2013–2022 and Forecast for 2023

Abstract

The aim of the review was to characterize the epidemiological situation on ixodic tick-borne borreliosis (ITBB) in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2022, to forecast the development of the ITBB epidemic process in 2023 based on the analysis of its trends in the period of 2013–2022. In total, 7 264 cases of ITBB were registered in the Russian Federation in 2022, which is 1.9 times higher than the 2021-value. In all regions in 2022, after a sharp decrease in the level of registered morbidity during the “covid” phase of 2020–2021, there was an incidence raise to the pre-pandemic level. During 2013–2022, distinctive features of the trends in the development of the ITBB epidemic process in the territories of varying degree of epidemic hazard were retained. A downward tendency in the incidence rates was revealed in 14 out of 18 entities with a long-term average annual incidence (LTAA) of ITBB above 6.2 0 /0000, with the exception of Moscow and the Kaluga Region, where a further increase in the incidence of ITBB is possible. In 6 out of 16 regions with LTAA 2013–2022 between 3.31 and 6.2 0 /0000, an upward trend was observed, and in 8 – a decrease in morbidity. The trend towards an increase in morbidity was detected in 7 out of 21 entities with LTAA of ITBB from 1.21 to 3.3 0 /0000 and in 15 out of 26 regions with a low LTAA 2013–2022 (below 1.2 0 /0000). The analysis of trends in the development of the ITBB epidemic process against the trends in changes in the frequency of contacts of the population with ticks, as well as calculations of the probable incidence rate allowed us to conclude that the incidence rate of ITBB in 2023 will range within the confidence intervals of long-term average annual values for the majority of the federal districts, with the exception of the Central Federal District, where an increase in the number of cases of ixodic tick-borne borreliosis is likely to occur, provided that the existing volumes of preventive measures are maintained and abnormal climatic phenomena absent. Effective control of the epidemic situation on the ITBB is attainable through preservation, and for such areas as Moscow, the Moscow Region, Voronezh, Kaluga, Orel, Ryazan, Penza and Rostov Regions, the Republic of Buryatia – increase in the volume of preventive measures, strengthening zoological and entomological monitoring of activity and structure of natural foci. There is an obvious need to develop algorithms for molecular-genetic monitoring of pathogens circulating in natural foci, and to focus attention onto the problems of diagnosis and prophylaxis of tick-borne transmissible infections.