Review of global energy trends towards 2040 and recommendations for Iran oil and gas sector

Heidari, Hamidreza; Akbari, Mohammadreza; Souhankar, Amirhossein; Hafezi, Reza

doi:10.1007/s13762-022-03963-w

Cited by 16 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…On the other hand, those who believe in intergenerational production argued that despite the propaganda created by oil-consuming countries, the oil age would not end soon and even if oil demand from the transportation sector declines rapidly, oil demand in the chemical and petrochemical sector would replace it. In fact, the amount of oil demand would be relatively the same as in 2018 (Heidari et al , 2022). On the other hand, in the worst scenario, the minimum demand for oil will reach 30 million barrels per day (Mckinsey, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Iran’s approach to energy policy towards 2040: a participatory scenario method

Hafezi

Heirani

Akbari

et al. 2023

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Purpose In the case of Iran, about 19 years have passed since the announcement of general energy policies. Policies adopted in the past included too many approaches and goals for the energy sector that some of them are in conflict with each other and their simultaneous implementation was impossible. Therefore, many of the expected goals of these policies have not been achieved. It is very important to adopt an appropriate approach that is compatible with the country’s characteristics and can steer energy policies. Therefore, this study aims to adopt an appropriate approach for the country’s energy sector according to the conditions and needs of the country. Design/methodology/approach A participatory scenario technique is designed and used to develop plausible projections in the case of Iran’s energy futures. Based on the proposed methodology, the research process starts with data gathering through interviews and national plans analysis. Then, findings were used as inputs to a simulation-based scenario development process. Scenarios are developed based on Monte Carlo simulation via cross-impact analysis technique purified based on expert judgments. Findings In this paper, to recognize Iran’s general approach to energy in the next 20 years, driving forces of change were introduced and used as input for the scenario development phase. Results showed sanctions play a significant role in Iran’s energy future and determine the directions of other driving forces. For renewable energy, it was proposed to increase the renewable share in Iran’s electricity generation mix to 5% of the total installed capacity. In the case of fossil fuel extraction, the maximum efficient rate was proposed for both oil and natural gas national production strategy. Originality/value This research is novel both in terms of application and theory. A new participatory scenario development method is used using simulations that are equipped based on experts’ judgments. Also from the practical perspective, this research targeted a future-oriented challenging problem to initialize national policy in a resource-rich developing economy (i.e. Iran).

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Iran’s approach to energy policy towards 2040: a participatory scenario method

Hafezi

Heirani

Akbari

et al. 2023

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“…To pursue a sustainable future, it is vital to explore clean and renewable energy alternatives. In fact, the share of non‐fossil fuels supply is growing and predicted to increase from 15–20 % to 25 % over the next 20 years [2] . Among the various renewable energy candidates, hydrogen energy is more appealing because it can conquer the regional imbalance distribution or intermittent limitation of the solar energy, wind energy and nuclear energy [3] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In fact, the share of non-fossil fuels supply is growing and predicted to increase from 15-20 % to 25 % over the next 20 years. [2] Among the various renewable energy candidates, hydrogen energy is more appealing because it can conquer the regional imbalance distribution or intermittent limitation of the solar energy, wind energy and nuclear energy. [3] Until now, more than 90 % of the hydrogen production in the world comes from fossil energy, especially from methane reforming, which is unsustainable and requires an extra purification process to obtain high-quality hydrogen.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and Strategies of Anion Exchange Membranes in Hydrogen‐electricity Energy Conversion Devices

Liu

et al. 2023

Chemistry A European J

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Alkaline hydrogen-electricity energy conversion technologies, involving anion exchange membrane fuel cells (AEMFCs) and anion exchange membrane water electrolyzers (AEMWEs) are more appealing than the acidic counterparts due to the elimination of precious metal catalysts. However, the physicochemical properties of anion exchange membrane (AEMs), i.e., ionic conductivity, mechanical strength, stability, etc., are inferior to that of proton exchange membranes (PEMs), thus hindering these alkaline technologies from practical employment. To promote their development, we summarize the main challenges and the corresponding strategies of AEMs for the application of AEMFCs and AEMWEs in this review. The hydroxide transportation mecha-nism, ion exchange capacity, hydration and microscopic morphology that are relevant to the ionic conductivity are discussed firstly. Following the ionic conductivity, another obstacle, stability of AEMs is comprehensively described in terms of alkaline stability, mechanical stability and electrochemical stability. Upon integrating into the devices, water management, carbonation effect and membrane-electrode interface that are critical to the cell performance are highlighted as well. This review is anticipated to provide insights into the AEM design for hydrogen-electric energy conversion devices, thus accelerating the widespread commercialization of these promising technologies.

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Unsustainable Energy Planning in Resource-Rich Developing Economies: Case of Iran

Souhankar,

Hafezi

2023

SDGs in Africa and the Middle East Region

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Review of global energy trends towards 2040 and recommendations for Iran oil and gas sector

Cited by 16 publications

References 16 publications

Iran’s approach to energy policy towards 2040: a participatory scenario method

Iran’s approach to energy policy towards 2040: a participatory scenario method

Challenges and Strategies of Anion Exchange Membranes in Hydrogen‐electricity Energy Conversion Devices

Unsustainable Energy Planning in Resource-Rich Developing Economies: Case of Iran

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