Ecosystem services are fundamental for the sustainable management of urban environments, particularly in mining cities confronting unique socio-environmental complexities. This study explores the intricate interactions among ecosystem services in a representative mining city, focusing on the impact of mining activities. A novel approach is employed to introduce a comprehensive framework for scenario-based analysis of ecosystem services. Land use and ecosystem service values for 2050 were predicted under the following three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection, and farmland protection. Through the evaluation of four key ecosystem services, namely water yield, habitat quality, carbon storage, and soil conservation, ecosystem service bundles were identified, and the trade-offs and synergies among these bundles were explored. Moreover, ecosystem service bundles in the mining areas were analyzed compared to the region at large, underscoring how the mining of various mineral types distinctly influenced ecosystem services. The results showed a persistent decline in total ecosystem service values of the whole region during 2000–2020 due to the diminishing forest cover and the enlargement of farmland and impervious surfaces. Mining areas exhibited significant impacts, with the soil erosion bundle predominating. However, the soil erosion bundle significantly reduced in the granite, copper, and nickel mining areas. By 2050, total ecosystem service values are projected to slowly rise, except under the farmland protection scenario. The entire region is expected to be mostly occupied by the ecological vulnerability bundle. But the ecosystem vulnerability bundle of mining areas is projected to decrease, especially under the ecological protection scenario, highlighting the importance of conservation efforts. These changes will enhance the synergies between soil conservation and other ecosystem services.
