Review: Methods for the estimation of extreme rainfall events

Johnson, K.M.; Smithers, J.

doi:10.17159/wsa/2019.v45.i3.6747

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Different statistical distributions and fitting methods are used in different countries, with the GEV distribution being the most common." A recent review paper emphasizes the PMP estimation in various countries(Johnson and Smithers 2019) including UK, US, Australia, and South Africa. The paper reviews in some detail the PMP estimation methods by WMO, the underlying uncertainties including climate variability and change, and suggest as a good practice to compare the PMP estimation based on alternative methods as well as the importance of updating periodically the design standards to include new data and knowledge because generally the estimated PMPs do not take into account recent extreme events Dyrrdal (2012).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

PMP and Climate Variability and Change: A Review

Salas

Anderson²,

Papalexiou

et al. 2020

J. Hydrol. Eng.

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A state-of-the-art review on the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) as it relates to climate variability and change is presented. The review consists of an examination of the current practice and the various developments published in literature. The focus is on relevant research where the effect of climate dynamics on the PMP are discussed as well as statistical methods developed for estimating very large extreme precipitation including the PMP. Often confusion arises on the interpretation of extreme events without considering the effect of low frequency components of the climate system, their probabilistic nature that may be described by heavy-tail models, and the effect of the uncertainty of several factors determining them, such as atmospheric moisture, its transport into storms, wind, and their future changes. The review examines these issues as well as the underlying historical and proxy data. In addition, we summarize the procedures and guidelines established by some countries (e.g. USA, Australia, Canada, UK, EU, and others), states (e.g. California, Quebec), and the current manual of the World Meteorological Organization for estimating the PMP. In doing so, we paid attention whether the current guidelines and research published literature take into consideration the effects of the variability and change of climatic processes and the underlying uncertainties.

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confidence: 99%

PMP and Climate Variability and Change: A Review

Salas

Anderson²,

Papalexiou

et al. 2020

J. Hydrol. Eng.

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“…Sedimentation management strategies include reservoir flushing, sediment bypass, and the construction of settling basins. Design flood estimation guidelines available from nine different countries are summarized in Table 3 based on some of the previous review articles [182,211,212]. For additional details, interested readers are referred to these articles and other references that are cited in this review.…”

Section: Guidelines and Bulletins On Design Flood Estimation And Dam ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-resilience of dams and levees in Canada: a review

Islam,

Fereshtehpour,

Najafi

et al. 2024

Discov Appl Sci

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Increasing frequency and intensification of flooding pose significant threats to critical structures, such as dams and levees. Failure of these structures can lead to substantial economic losses and significant adverse environmental and social consequences. Improving the resilience of these structures against climate-related impacts is important to avoid future risks of failure due to the potential intensification of flooding. National-level guidance on integrating resilience-based frameworks and addressing climate risks and uncertainties in existing design flood estimation methodologies for dams and levees are lacking. To address these gaps, this study first reviews projected climate change patterns for Canada and then discusses regional vulnerabilities of dams by considering significant historical floods and their consequences. Subsequently, a review of existing design flood estimation procedures, with a focus on frequency- and probable maximum flood-based approaches, is conducted to identify areas where climate change-related aspects can be integrated. By examining the challenges associated with various stages of design flood estimation procedures, the review discusses a framework for enhancing climate resiliency of dams and levees considering four pillars of resilience. Furthermore, Canadian design flood estimation practices are compared with international practices to identify areas that require attention. The study highlights the importance of a resilience-based framework in providing design and operation guidance to ensure that dams and levees are resilient to climate impacts. Policymakers and engineers can prioritize consideration of climate-resilience in the design and operation of these structures in order to safeguard communities and infrastructure from the growing risks of future floods associated with climate change.

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“…Solving the above equation provides the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) θ = ( α, σ, μ). Numerous studies have shown EVT to successfully model extreme precipitation [41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49].…”

Section: Generalized Extreme Value Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Extreme Precipitation Indices over Bhutan

et al. 2023

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With the changing climate, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are increasing. Climate change is projected to increase both mean and extreme precipitation. Socio-economic damages can be immense and require a difficult recovery, especially for developing countries such as Bhutan. Furthermore, changing precipitation patterns affect land productivity and water availability. The Experts Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI) is used to find the changes associated with extreme precipitation in Bhutan. The study of extreme precipitation is important for Bhutan, whose economy is dependent on agriculture and hydropower. Even for a small country, there were varying patterns of precipitation in different districts. Deothang district received less frequent and more intense rainfall, while Haa, Bumthang, Trashiyangtse, and Chukha received weak but persistent rainfall. Mann–Kendall trends revealed a drier climate for two districts, Dagana and Trashiyangtse, and a wetter climate for the Mongar district. Modeling of the extreme rainfall with extreme value theory (EVT) revealed that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution by their T = 50-year return value, indicating an increasing value of annual maximums for all stations. This study is the first of its kind for Bhutan, and the findings can be used for decision support and the planning of appropriate adaptation strategies for hydro-meteorological disasters, hydropower, and agriculture sectors in Bhutan.

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Review: Methods for the estimation of extreme rainfall events

Cited by 9 publications

References 31 publications

PMP and Climate Variability and Change: A Review

PMP and Climate Variability and Change: A Review

Climate-resilience of dams and levees in Canada: a review

Trends in Extreme Precipitation Indices over Bhutan

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