Reversal Asymmetry of Rainfall Change Over the Indian Ocean During the Radiative Forcing Increase and Stabilization

Abstract

Since the industrial revolution, the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been increasing as a result of human activities. The increase reduces the outgoing longwave radiation and stores more energy in the climate system, which has a direct influence on the global climate (Boer et al., 2000;von Schuckmann et al., 2016;Wang et al., 2020). Because of its large heat capacity, the ocean acts as heat storage, and approximately 93% of redundant energy is absorbed by the ocean, largely lowering the increase in the global mean surface temperature (

No going back - Limited reversibility of regional climate changes under overshoot

“…The superposition of the instantaneous response to the reduction in greenhouse gas concentrations after peak warming with the long-term and slow responses to the emissions in the decades before peak warming [13,12] as well as the above mentioned effects of aerosol emissions before peak warming lead to a shift in regional sea surface temperature patterns. These changes have far reaching implications for atmospheric circulation, moisture transport and thereby regional climate signals [29,30,31].…”

Persistently Southward of the South Asian High During the Radiative Forcing Stabilization

“…To test the atmospheric responses to heating, the linear baroclinic model (LBM) is employed in this study (Hou et al., 2021; Ma & Xie, 2013; Qu & Huang, 2016). The model consists of atmospheric primitive equations, and it can examine linear dynamics in the atmosphere by removing nonlinear process from the model to understand complex atmospheric feedback sequences (Watanabe & Kimoto, 2000).…”

“…Sum of the last two is the apparent heat source ($${Q}_{1}^{\ast }$$), which is diabatic heating, and MASC is adiabatic heating associated with atmospheric stratification change. Homogeneous ocean heating influences atmosphere stratification ( MASC ) as the “wet‐get‐drier” mechanism, and the inhomogeneous warming of the ocean causes anomalous upward and downward motion in the atmosphere ($${Q}_{1}^{\ast }$$) due to the “warmer‐get‐wetter” theory (Hou et al., 2021; Xie et al., 2010). Consideration about these two effects may lead to a comprehensive understanding of the atmospheric response (Hou et al., 2021; Qu & Huang, 2016).…”

“…It is integrated of 50 days to get the stable state, and average of the last 20 days are analyzed. Meanwhile, since the forcing during RF stabilizing is too small to offset the internal disturbance of LBM, it is expanded 10 times to approximate the magnitude of forcing during increased RF, and results are reduced by 10, as in methods in Hou et al (2021).…”

“…During RF increase, the GMST has an immediate response, similar to the RF pathway; however, during RF stabilization, the GMST grows steadily with a slower pace rather than holding steady (Hou et al., 2021; Long et al., 2020). Past researches have indicated that it is due to different contributions between ocean fast and slow responses (Dickinson, 1981; Held et al., 2010).…”