Revenue Prediction of Music Concerts Using the Mathematical Model of Hit Phenomena

Abstract

A mathematical model for the hit phenomenon in entertainment within a society is presented as a stochastic process of interactions of human dynamics. The calculations for the Japanese motion picture market based on to the mathematical model agree very well with the actual residue distribution in time. The world most popular rock band Coldplay is analyzed using the SNS data. L'Arc-en-Ciel of Japanese rock band and LADYGAGA are also analyzed using the data of SNS as well. The results agree very well, so that the mathematical theory for hit phenomena can be applied to the estimation of tickets sold for Music concerts.

Analysis of Mathematical Model of Hit Phenomena Stage Actors of Japan

“…[1] the data set presented by M Data Co.Ltd monitors the exposure of each films. [14,15] 2. HIT PHENOMENA…”

“…The deviation term Δf i (t) corresponds to the deviation effect from the collective advertisement and publicity effect for individual persons, which we can assume to be (12) Therefore, we obtain the equation for the ensemble-averaged purchase intention in the following manner as shown in ref. 9: (13) where (14) Eq. (13) can be applied to the intention for entertainment in the real market.…”

“…Recently, we present a mathematical theory for hit phenomena where effect of advertisement and propagation of reputation and rumors due to human communications are included as the statistics physics of human dynamics [1] In this paper, we analyzed the 12 generation Ichikawa Danjuro XII and Matsumoto Koshiro IX as stage actors on behalf of Japan. From Figure 2 , They are a Kabuki actors are traditional Japanese performing arts, which continued from the 17th century [14,15].…”

Sociophysics Analysis of the Dynamics of Peoples' Interests in Society

“…The mathematical model has been applied to the motion picture business in the Japanese market, and the calculations have been compared to the reported revenue and observed number of blog posts for each film. Furthermore, in several recent papers, it has been shown that the theory is not only applicable to the box office, but also to other social entertainment, such as local events [35], animated dramas on TV [36], the "general election" of the Japanese girl-group, AKB48 [37], online music [38], plays [39], music concerts [40,41], Japanese stage actors [42], Kabuki players of the nineteenth century [43], and TV drama [44]. In these works, an extended mathematical theory of the hit phenomena was used to apply the model to general entertainment in society.…”

Position-sensitive propagation of information on social media using social physics approach

“…This theory is used to analyze attention on Twitter and blogs about many topics. In several recent papers, it was shown that the theory is not only applicable to the box office, but also other social entertainment such as local events [7], animated dramas on TV [8], the "general election" of the Japanese girl-group AKB48 [9], online music [10], plays [11], music concerts [12,13], Japanese stage actors [14], Kabuki players of the 19th century [15], TV dramas [16], and online games like Pokemon GO [17].…”