Revealing the true navigability of the Northern Sea Route from ice conditions and weather observations

Sibul, Gleb; Yang, Peihao; Muravev, Dmitri; Jin, Jian Gang; Kong, Linghe

doi:10.1080/03088839.2022.2059717

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Zhou et al [28] simulated the navigability of the Arctic routes from 2011 to 2016 based on SIC and SIT data and satellite monitoring data, and measured the navigability period and transit time of the Arctic routes at daily frequencies. Sibul et al [29] analyzed the navigation through the Northern Sea Route, using 2019-2020 data for simulations, and found that it took ships between 11 and 38 days to complete the entire voyage. Zhang et al [30] used the CMIP6 model to predict changes in Arctic shipping lanes and navigation potential over the next 30 years and found that more time would be saved compared with previous studies of Arctic navigation.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Compared with the Dijkstra algorithm, the A* algorithm can cope with environmental factors more flexibly and improve the accuracy and feasibility of path planning. [15] 2015-2100 × × × Nam et al [22] 2004-2009 × Dijkstra × Li et al [23] 2018-2019 POLARIS Dijkstra × Chen et al [25] 2021-2050 ATAM × × Chen et al [26] 2021-2050 ATAM × × Melia et al [27] 2015-2100 × Dijkstra × Zhou et al [28] 2011-2016 ATAM Dijkstra × Sibul et al [29] 2019-2020 AIRSS A* algorithm × Dong et al [31] 1979-2017…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Considering the limitations of sea ice on navigational conditions, this research analyzes the navigability of the Arctic by using the A* algorithm. The A* algorithm is one of the commonly used heuristics in path planning, mainly used to solve the single-source shortest path problem in directed graphs or tree diagrams [29,62]. The A* algorithm can balance search speed and global optimal by using a specific utility function f (n).…”

Section: Ship Route Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Changes in Accessibility of Chinese Coastal Ports to Arctic Ports under Melting Ice

Zhang,

Zuo,

Sun

et al. 2023

JMSE

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Global warming has accelerated the melting of Arctic sea ice, providing favorable conditions for Arctic shipping. Arctic ports are gaining prominence in shipping networks and international trade. Accessibility is a key indicator of port facilitation, and identifying trends in Arctic port accessibility holds significance for Arctic route planning and port development. To achieve this, this paper develops a modeling framework for assessing the accessibility of Arctic ports. First, we utilize the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) model to predict sea ice conditions and quantify the navigation risk for open water (OW) vessels and Arc4 ice-class (Arc4) vessels during the summer months of 2030–2050. The A-star (A*) algorithm is then used to plan the vessel’s shortest route while avoiding high-risk waters. Finally, changes in the accessibility of Arctic ports are calculated by using an improved gravity model. The framework is applied for the quantitative analysis of the accessibility of Chinese coastal ports to Arctic ports. The results indicate that accessibility to Arctic ports will gradually increase for all Chinese ports in the future, with the port of Shanghai continuing to maintain its prominence under the trend of melting sea ice.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ship Route Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Changes in Accessibility of Chinese Coastal Ports to Arctic Ports under Melting Ice

Zhang,

Zuo,

Sun

et al. 2023

JMSE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The results show that the model tries to minimize the costs by reducing the total distance despite increasing traffic flows. Finally, Sibul et al [56] analyze the navigation along the Northern Sea route considering ice conditions and weather changes. The main objective of this work minimizes the costs despite the decreasing speed of the sailings due to the severe weather conditions.…”

Section: Recent Work On Simheuristics In Landtmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing Transport Logistics under Uncertainty with Simheuristics: Concepts, Review and Trends

et al. 2022

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Background: Uncertainty conditions have been increasingly considered in optimization problems arising in real-life transportation and logistics activities. Generally, the analysis of complex systems in these non-deterministic environments is approached with simulation techniques. However, simulation is not an optimization tool. Hence, it must be combined with optimization methods when our goal is to: (i) minimize operating costs while guaranteeing a given quality of service; or (ii) maximize system performance using limited resources. When solving NP-hard optimization problems, the use of metaheuristics allows us to deal with large-scale instances in reasonable computation times. By adding a simulation layer to the metaheuristics, the methodology becomes a simheuristic, which allows the optimization element to solve scenarios under uncertainty. Methods: This paper reviews the indexed documents in Elsevier Scopus database of both initial as well as recent applications of simheuristics in the logistics and transportation field. The paper also discusses open research lines in this knowledge area. Results: The simheuristics approaches to solving NP-hard and large-scale combinatorial optimization problems under uncertainty scenarios are discussed, as they frequently appear in real-life applications in logistics and transportation activities. Conclusions: The way in which the different simheuristic components interact puts a special emphasis in the different stages that can contribute to make the approach more efficient from a computational perspective. There are several lines of research that are still open in the field of simheuristics.

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A multi-objective optimisation strategy for ice navigation under ship safety-following scenarios

Liu

Zhou

Zhong

2023

Ocean & Coastal Management

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Revealing the true navigability of the Northern Sea Route from ice conditions and weather observations

Cited by 5 publications

References 23 publications

Changes in Accessibility of Chinese Coastal Ports to Arctic Ports under Melting Ice

Changes in Accessibility of Chinese Coastal Ports to Arctic Ports under Melting Ice

Optimizing Transport Logistics under Uncertainty with Simheuristics: Concepts, Review and Trends

A multi-objective optimisation strategy for ice navigation under ship safety-following scenarios

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