Returns to Higher Education and Dropouts: A Double Machine Learning Approach

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of the short-term individual returns to Higher Education (HE) in the United Kingdom, focusing on the effects of attending HE on the labour market outcomes for dropouts. Results show differential labour market outcomes for dropouts vs. individuals who have never attended HE, where outcomes are employment, wages and occupational status. I find that female dropouts, on average, have a higher occupational status than those who have never participated in HE, but do not experience a wage premium. Conversely, male dropouts experience a wage premium relative those who have never participated in HE, but the effect on occupational status is comparatively small. The evidence is mixed, however, as both male and female dropouts are more likely to be unemployed, though the effect is larger for males.

Virtual Voices, Real Insights: Sentiment and Topic Analysis of Discussions about Educational Dropout in YouTube comments

“…On the labor market, dropouts from VET face poor employment opportunities, income loss and low salaries and often temporary jobs with low skill requirements [58,64,65]. University dropouts also experience disadvantages in the labor market, in the sense of limited job prospects, a higher risk of unstable jobs, lower employment likelihood and disadvantages in specialized positions [66][67][68]. Moreover, applicants seem to anticipate this, as a third of dropouts conceal on their CV that they attended higher education without graduation [69].…”

“…Empirical findings support this assumption concerning the further labor market success of dropouts from higher education. Several studies have found that some university attendance increases later earnings, even if the students have not obtained a degree [67,[71][72][73]. Additionally, incomplete university studies positively impact professional prestige [67,74,75].…”

“…Several studies have found that some university attendance increases later earnings, even if the students have not obtained a degree [67,[71][72][73]. Additionally, incomplete university studies positively impact professional prestige [67,74,75]. Furthermore, it is evident that drop-outs also have good prospects in the short term.…”