Retrospective Dose Assessment for the Population Living in Areas of Local Fallout from the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site Part II: Internal Exposure to Thyroid

Gordeev, Konstantin; Shinkarev, Sergey; Ilyin, L.A.; Bouville, André; Hoshi, Masaharu; Luckyanov, Nickolas; Simon, Steven L.

doi:10.1269/jrr.47.a137

Cited by 20 publications

(14 citation statements)

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“…This proportion (η <50 ) must be assessed for each location of interest and for each test. The model used for the assessment of η <50 was empirically based (24,38). In general, η <50 is small (a few percent) within a few tens of kilometers from the test site.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Ultrasound-Detected Thyroid Nodule Prevalence and Radiation Dose from Fallout

Land

Zhumadilov²,

et al. 2008

Radiation Research

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Settlements near the Semipalatinsk Test Site (SNTS) in northeastern Kazakhstan were exposed to radioactive fallout during [1949][1950][1951][1952][1953][1954][1955][1956][1957][1958][1959][1960][1961][1962]. Thyroid disease prevalence among 2994 residents of eight villages was ascertained by ultrasound screening. Malignancy was determined by cytopathology. Individual thyroid doses from external and internal radiation sources were reconstructed from fallout deposition patterns, residential histories and diet, including childhood milk consumption. Point estimates of individual external and internal dose averaged 0.04 Gy (range 0-0.65) and 0.31 Gy (0-9.6), respectively, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.46. Ultrasound-detected thyroid nodule prevalence was 18% and 39% among males and females, respectively. It was significantly and independently associated with both external and internal dose, the main study finding. The estimated relative biological effectiveness of internal compared to external radiation dose was 0.33, with 95% confidence bounds of 0.09-3.11. Prevalence of papillary cancer was 0.9% and was not significantly associated with radiation dose. In terms of excess relative risk per unit dose, our dose-response findings for nodule prevalence are comparable to those from populations exposed to medical X rays and to acute radiation from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings.

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“…The distance at which η <50 approached one varied from test to test, depending on the altitude reached by the debris cloud (a function of the explosive yield) and the altitude-averaged wind velocity. Previous studies have also modeled these complex processes (3,36), although generally using simpler algorithms than those employed here (38).…”

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Ultrasound-Detected Thyroid Nodule Prevalence and Radiation Dose from Fallout

Land

Zhumadilov²,

et al. 2008

Radiation Research

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“…Methods for estimation of doses from external and internal irradiation by fallout from nuclear testing, with particular emphasis on fallout from the Nevada Test Site (NTS), have been discussed elsewhere in detail [e.g., Simon et al (16, 17) and Beck et al (18)], and formed much of the basis for the dose-estimation methods used in 2008 and in the current article. Modifications to the methods for the NTS dose reconstruction based on joint discussions between U.S. and Russian investigators were discussed by Simon et al (19), Gordeev et al (20, 21) and Beck et al (18). Specific details about contamination from the SNTS were discussed by Gordeev et al (20–22).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Modifications to the methods for the NTS dose reconstruction based on joint discussions between U.S. and Russian investigators were discussed by Simon et al (19), Gordeev et al (20, 21) and Beck et al (18). Specific details about contamination from the SNTS were discussed by Gordeev et al (20–22). The modifications of the 2008 dosimetry for the current study included: 1.…”

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confidence: 99%

Accounting for Shared and Unshared Dosimetric Uncertainties in the Dose Response for Ultrasound-Detected Thyroid Nodules after Exposure to Radioactive Fallout

et al. 2015

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Dosimetic uncertainties, particularly those that are shared among subgroups of a study population, can bias, distort or reduce the slope or significance of a dose response. Exposure estimates in studies of health risks from environmental radiation exposures are generally highly uncertain and thus, susceptible to these methodological limitations. An analysis was published in 2008 concerning radiation-related thyroid nodule prevalence in a study population of 2,994 villagers under the age of 21 years old between August 1949 and September 1962 and who lived downwind from the Semi-palatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan. This dose-response analysis identified a statistically significant association between thyroid nodule prevalence and reconstructed doses of fallout-related internal and external radiation to the thyroid gland; however, the effects of dosimetric uncertainty were not evaluated since the doses were simple point “best estimates”. In this work, we revised the 2008 study by a comprehensive treatment of dosimetric uncertainties. Our present analysis improves upon the previous study, specifically by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainties in dose estimation and risk analysis, and differs from the 2008 analysis in the following ways: 1. The study population size was reduced from 2,994 to 2,376 subjects, removing 618 persons with uncertain residence histories; 2. Simulation of multiple population dose sets (vectors) was performed using a two-dimensional Monte Carlo dose estimation method; and 3. A Bayesian model averaging approach was employed for evaluating the dose response, explicitly accounting for large and complex uncertainty in dose estimation. The results were compared against conventional regression techniques. The Bayesian approach utilizes 5,000 independent realizations of population dose vectors, each of which corresponds to a set of conditional individual median internal and external doses for the 2,376 subjects. These 5,000 population dose vectors reflect uncertainties in dosimetric parameters, partly shared and partly independent, among individual members of the study population. Risk estimates for thyroid nodules from internal irradiation were higher than those published in 2008, which results, to the best of our knowledge, from explicitly accounting for dose uncertainty. In contrast to earlier findings, the use of Bayesian methods led to the conclusion that the biological effectiveness for internal and external dose was similar. Estimates of excess relative risk per unit dose (ERR/Gy) for males (177 thyroid nodule cases) were almost 30 times those for females (571 cases) and were similar to those reported for thyroid cancers related to childhood exposures to external and internal sources in other studies. For confirmed cases of papillary thyroid cancers (3 in males, 18 in females), the ERR/Gy was also comparable to risk estimates from other studies, but not significantly different from zero. These findings represent the first reported dose response for a radiation epidemiologic stu...

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“…Deterministic estimates of radiation doses to the study subjects were performed in 2003 based on fallout exposure models known as the “joint U.S./Russian methodology” (Gordeev et al 2006a, 2006b; Simon et al 2006). Dose estimates suggested that village residents received high radiation doses from internal and external exposure of the thyroid gland; the individual doses among the study subjects were estimated as high as 0.65 Gy from external radiation and as high as 9.6 Gy from internal exposure (Land et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Behavior and food consumption pattern of the population exposed in 1949–1962 to fallout from Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in Kazakhstan

Drozdovitch

Schonfeld

Akimzhanov³

et al. 2010

Radiat Environ Biophys

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The relationship between radiation exposure from nuclear weapons testing fallout and thyroid disease in a group of 2,994 subjects has been the subject of study by the U.S. National Cancer Institute. In that study, radiation doses to the thyroid were estimated for residents of villages in Kazakhstan possibly exposed to deposition of radioactive fallout from nuclear testing conducted by the Soviet Union at the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan between 1949 and 1962. The study subjects included individuals of both Kazakh and Russian origin who were exposed during childhood and adolescence. An initial dose reconstruction used for the risk analysis of Land et al. (2008) was based on individual information collected from basic questionnaires administered to the study population in 1998. However, because data on several key questions for accurately estimating doses was not obtained from the 1998 questionnaires it was decided to conduct a second data collection campaign in 2007. Due to the many years elapsed since exposure, a well developed strategy was necessary to encourage accurate memory recall. In our recent study, a focus group interview data collection methodology was used to collect historical behavioral and food consumption data. The data collection in 2007 involved interviews conducted within four eight-person focus groups (three groups of women and one group of men) in each of four exposed villages where thyroid disease screening was conducted in 1998. Population-based data on relevant childhood behaviors, including time spent in- and outdoors and consumption rates of milk and other dairy products were collected from women’s groups. The data were collected for five age groups of children and adolescents ranging from less than 1 year of age to 21 years of age. Dairy products considered included fresh milk and other products from cows, goats, mares, and sheep. Men’s focus group interviews pertained to construction materials of houses and schools, and animal grazing patterns and feeding practices. The response data collected are useful for improving estimates of thyroid radiation dose estimates for the subjects of an ongoing epidemiological study.

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Retrospective Dose Assessment for the Population Living in Areas of Local Fallout from the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site Part II: Internal Exposure to Thyroid

Cited by 20 publications

References 5 publications

Ultrasound-Detected Thyroid Nodule Prevalence and Radiation Dose from Fallout

Ultrasound-Detected Thyroid Nodule Prevalence and Radiation Dose from Fallout

Accounting for Shared and Unshared Dosimetric Uncertainties in the Dose Response for Ultrasound-Detected Thyroid Nodules after Exposure to Radioactive Fallout

Behavior and food consumption pattern of the population exposed in 1949–1962 to fallout from Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in Kazakhstan

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