Retrodicting large herbivore biomass for the last glacial maximum on the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain (South Africa) using modern ecological knowledge of African herbivore assemblages and rainfall

Brooke, Christopher F.; Marean, Curtis W.; Wren, Colin D.; Fritz, Hervé; Venter, Jan A.

doi:10.1017/qua.2021.23

Cited by 3 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Large herbivore biomass was calculated using 1 km 2 grid cells across the PAP for each of the five functional groups based on varying degrees of rainfall and different vegetation types using proxies from extant protected areas across South Africa (Brooke et al, 2021). Brooke et al (2021) calculated the large herbivore biomass for 39 protected areas across the four main biomes found on the PAP. Protected areas were selected across a varying rainfall gradient as rainfall is the best predictor of herbivore biomass in Africa.…”

Section: Large Herbivore Biomassmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Protected areas were selected across a varying rainfall gradient as rainfall is the best predictor of herbivore biomass in Africa. Using this rainfall gradient and varying herbivore biomass Brooke et al (2021) then predicted the likely large herbivore biomass across the PAP. Their results showed that herbivore biomass was highest in the northern PAP for the water-dependent grazer functional group and lowest in the north for medium-sized social mixed feeders, large browsers and non-ruminants where these functional groups were unlikely to occur.…”

Section: Large Herbivore Biomassmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Aggregation into groups (Hempson et al, 2015) and behaviour characterised by sensitivity to disturbance by humans may have in part allowed these species to avoid predation (Riggio et al, 2018). Large browsers are widespread throughout Africa (Hempson et al, 2015), but at a low predicted biomass for the PAP (Brooke et al, 2021), which in part accounted for the relatively low predicted probability of occurrence in all biomes except thicket. The effect of humans was also most apparent in the high human density models in the thicket biome; however, this relationship may be slightly exaggerated resulting from the highest probability of occurrence (Fig.…”

Section: Large Browsersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Environmental and landscape of fear characteristics for the vegetation types(Cowling et al, 2020) of the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain. Average herbivore biomass is taken from(Brooke et al, 2021).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using functional groups to predict the spatial distribution of large herbivores on the Palaeo‐Agulhas Plain, South Africa, during the Last Glacial Maximum

Brooke

Marean

Wren

et al. 2022

J Quaternary Science

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Throughout much of the Quaternary, lower sea levels in the southern Cape of South Africa exposed a different landscape to what we see today, the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain (PAP). The PAP was dominated by large-bodied and gregarious grazing species contrasting with the small-bodied predominantly solitary species we find in the region today. The distribution of these herbivores would likely have been driven by similar drivers we see in contemporary herbivore ecology. Importantly, the occurrence of early humans and their associated technology would have also influenced the probability of herbivores occurring in an area. Here we create a predictive model for large herbivores using probability of occurrence of functional grouping in relation to environmental drivers and humans. We show how early humans influenced the distribution of large herbivores on the PAP alongside other environmental drivers. In the fynbos biome, probability of occurrence was highest for the medium-sized social mixed feeders' functional group in the thicket for small non-social browsers, large browsers, and non-ruminants and in grasslands for water-dependent grazers. In our models, human influence affected functional groups to varying degrees but had the strongest effect on medium-sized social mixed feeders.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Large Herbivore Biomassmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Large Herbivore Biomassmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Large Browsersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Environmental and landscape of fear characteristics for the vegetation types(Cowling et al, 2020) of the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain. Average herbivore biomass is taken from(Brooke et al, 2021).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using functional groups to predict the spatial distribution of large herbivores on the Palaeo‐Agulhas Plain, South Africa, during the Last Glacial Maximum

Brooke

Marean

Wren

et al. 2022

J Quaternary Science

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Small populations of Palaeolithic humans in Cyprus hunted endemic megafauna to extinction

Bradshaw,

Saltré,

Crabtree

et al. 2024

Proc. R. Soc. B.

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The hypothesized main drivers of megafauna extinctions in the late Quaternary have wavered between over-exploitation by humans and environmental change, with recent investigations demonstrating more nuanced synergies between these drivers depending on taxon, spatial scale, and region. However, most studies still rely on comparing archaeologically based chronologies of timing of initial human arrival into naïve ecosystems and palaeontologically inferred dates of megafauna extinctions. Conclusions arising from comparing chronologies also depend on the reliability of dated evidence, dating uncertainties, and correcting for the low probability of preservation (Signor–Lipps effect). While some models have been developed to test the susceptibility of megafauna to theoretical offtake rates, none has explicitly linked human energetic needs, prey choice, and hunting efficiency to examine the plausibility of human-driven extinctions. Using the island of Cyprus in the terminal Pleistocene as an ideal test case because of its late human settlement (~14.2–13.2 ka), small area (~11 000 km 2 ), and low megafauna diversity (2 species), we developed stochastic models of megafauna population dynamics, with offtake dictated by human energetic requirements, prey choice, and hunting-efficiency functions to test whether the human population at the end of the Pleistocene could have caused the extinction of dwarf hippopotamus ( Phanourios minor ) and dwarf elephants ( Palaeoloxodon cypriotes ). Our models reveal not only that the estimated human population sizes ( n = 3000–7000) in Late Pleistocene Cyprus could have easily driven both species to extinction within < 1000 years, the model predictions match the observed, Signor–Lipps-corrected chronological sequence of megafauna extinctions inferred from the palaeontological record ( P. minor at ~12–11.1 ka, followed by P. cypriotes at ~10.3–9.1 ka).

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Mechanisms of hunting native megafauna to extinction by Palaeolithic humans on Cyprus

Bradshaw,

Saltre,

Crabtree

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The hypothesised main drivers of megafauna extinctions in the late Quaternary have wavered between over-exploitation by humans and environmental change, with recent investigations demonstrating more nuanced synergies between these drivers depending on taxon, spatial scale, and region. However, most studies still rely on comparing archaeologically based chronologies of timing of initial human arrival into naïve ecosystems and palaeontologically inferred dates of megafauna extinctions. Conclusions arising from comparing chronologies also depend on the reliability of dated evidence, dating uncertainties, and correcting for the low probability of preservation (Signor-Lipps effect). While some models have been developed to test the susceptibility of megafauna to theoretical offtake rates, none has explicitly linked human energetic needs, prey choice, and hunting efficiency to examine the plausibility of human-driven extinctions. Using the island of Cyprus in the terminal Pleistocene as an ideal test case because of its late human settlement (~ 14.2 ka–13.2 ka), small area (~ 11,000 km2), and low megafauna diversity (2 species), we developed stochastic models of megafauna population dynamics, with offtake dictated by human energetic requirements, prey choice, and hunting-efficiency functions to test whether the human population at the end of the Pleistocene could have caused the extinction of dwarf hippopotamus (Phanourios minor) and dwarf elephants (Palaeoloxodon cypriotes). Our models reveal not only that the estimated human population sizes (N = 3,000–7,000) in Late Pleistocene Cyprus could have easily driven both species to extinction within < 1,000 years, the model predictions match the observed, Signor-Lipps-corrected chronological sequence of megafauna extinctions inferred from the palaeontological record (Phanourios at ~ 12 ka–11.1 ka, followed by Palaeoloxodon at ~ 10.3 ka–9.1 ka).

show abstract

Retrodicting large herbivore biomass for the last glacial maximum on the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain (South Africa) using modern ecological knowledge of African herbivore assemblages and rainfall

Cited by 3 publications

References 69 publications

Using functional groups to predict the spatial distribution of large herbivores on the Palaeo‐Agulhas Plain, South Africa, during the Last Glacial Maximum

Using functional groups to predict the spatial distribution of large herbivores on the Palaeo‐Agulhas Plain, South Africa, during the Last Glacial Maximum

Small populations of Palaeolithic humans in Cyprus hunted endemic megafauna to extinction

Mechanisms of hunting native megafauna to extinction by Palaeolithic humans on Cyprus

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