Rethinking the position of natural gas in a low-carbon energy transition

Africa needs context-relevant evidence to shape its clean energy future

“…First, narratives of Africa as a single entity have dominated both sides of the natural gas versus renewables argument 1,[17][18][19] . Yet, there are significant variations in terms of extant energy systems and energy poverty levels 7 , resource endowments 5 , and costs of capital 20 , as well as skills and capabilities 21 .…”

Fossil fuels, stranded assets, and the energy transition in the Global South: A systematic literature review

“…Currently, the energy transition does not LFFU, but rather adds RES energy without displacing FF (York & Bell, 2019) or even goes back to FF (coal in Asia and natural gas in Africa), to realize the RtD, tackle energy poverty, meet demand or become an established FF exporter (Afful‐Dadzie et al, 2020; Bugaje et al, 2022; Delina, 2018; La Rovere, 2020; Murshed et al, 2021; Nalule, 2019; Oskarsson et al, 2021; Quitzow et al, 2021; Zaman et al, 2018). Developing countries are replicating traditional growth patterns by expanding their fossil‐based energy systems while adding RES to the energy mix (IPCC, 2022a; Schaffartzik & Fischer‐Kowalski, 2018).…”

“…Interestingly, the literature diverges geographically. Some studies show that sub‐Saharan Africa is not prepared for LFFU (Adewuyi et al, 2020; Afful‐Dadzie et al, 2020; Bugaje et al, 2022; IEA, 2021a; Nalule, 2019). The energy trilemma (the choice between energy security, equity, and sustainability), combined with the economic development imperative, makes Africa's energy transition a “progressive” process (Nalule, 2019, p. 264).…”

“…The degree of unmet electricity demand, even with RES deployment, and the cost of energy generation under fiscal constraints impact the trilemma, putting sustainability in last place (Afful‐Dadzie et al, 2020). Studies emphasize natural gas as a transition fuel in Africa (Adewuyi et al, 2020; Bugaje et al, 2022; Nalule, 2019; Okafor et al, 2021; Verdeil et al, 2015) but scarcely account for the risk of carbon lock‐in and stranded assets resulting from investment in natural gas (Bos & Gupta, 2016; Kemfert et al, 2022).…”

“…An EU CBAM 7 analysis shows the impacts on the Global South, particularly Africa, which is more exposed and vulnerable in terms of trade diversification, emissions, and institutional capacity to monitor and report emissions embodied in products, reproducing new types of North–South inequalities (Eicke et al, 2021). Research on Africa (Adewuyi et al, 2020; Afful‐Dadzie et al, 2020; Bugaje et al, 2022; Kincer et al, 2022) stresses this potential unequal outcome, calling for development institutions to be flexible in tailoring their support to low‐emitting developing countries based on their endowments and needs, rather than financially banning all FF (Kincer et al, 2022).…”