Results of a Randomized Hail Suppression Experiment in Northeast Colorado. Part VI:<i>Post Hoc</i>Stratification by Storm Intensity and Type

Foote, G. Brant; Mohr, Carl G.

doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1979)018<1589:roarhs>2.0.co;2

Cited by 17 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…This is broadly consistent with observational studies on the lifetime of individual, isolated cells (e.g. Foote and Mohr, 1979;Westcott, 1984;Wilson et al, 1998). The lifetime distribution appears to be approximately exponential up to ∼45 min, with a small peak for around 60 to 75 min.…”

Section: Results From a Crm Simulationsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…The rapid fall-off for lifetimes in the range 10 to 60 min is again qualitatively consistent with observations (see, for example, the distributions of radar cell lifetimes in Fig. 3 of Foote and Mohr, 1979, Fig. 8 of Wiggert et al, 1981, Fig.…”

Section: Results From a Crm Simulationsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…Other methods are based on radar echoes (e.g. Foote and Mohr, 1979;Dixon and Wiener, 1993;Theusner and Hauf, 2004) and even the visual inspection of photographs (e.g. Plank, 1969;Hozumi et al, 1982).…”

Section: Identify Cloud Objects At a Given Timestepmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Statistical properties of cloud lifecycles in cloud-resolving models

Plant

2009

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract.A new technique is described for the analysis of cloud-resolving model simulations, which allows one to investigate the statistics of the lifecycles of cumulus clouds. Clouds are tracked from timestep to timestep within the model run. This allows for a very simple method of tracking, but one which is both comprehensive and robust. An approach for handling cloud splits and mergers is described which allows clouds with simple and complicated time histories to be compared within a single framework. This is found to be important for the analysis of an idealized simulation of radiative-convective equilibrium, in which the moist, buoyant updrafts (i.e., the convective cores) were tracked. Around half of all such cores were subject to splits and mergers during their lifecycles. For cores without any such events, the average lifetime is 30 min, but events can lengthen the typical lifetime considerably.

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Section: Results From a Crm Simulationsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Results From a Crm Simulationsupporting

confidence: 88%

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Statistical properties of cloud lifecycles in cloud-resolving models

Plant

2009

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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“…A distinction between single-cell and complex storms is not examined in the analysis presented here because the great majority of storms were of the single-cell variety. The average storm duration is 27 min, which is similar to the findings of Battan (1953) and Foote and Mohr (1979) who computed average lifetimes for individual convective cells of 23 and 21 min, respectively. Additionally, the WSMR storms tend to be small, with 67% of them having areas of less than 25 km 2 (Fig.…”

Section: B the Wsmr Convective-storm Climatologysupporting

confidence: 84%

The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part IV: The White Sands Missile Range Auto-Nowcast System

Saxen

Mueller

Warner

et al. 2008

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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During the summer months at the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command's (ATEC) White Sands Missile Range (WSMR), forecasting thunderstorm activity is one of the primary duties of the range forecasters. The safety of personnel working on the range and the protection of expensive test equipment depend critically on the quality of forecasts of thunderstorms and associated hazards, including cloud-toground lightning, hail, strong winds, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and tornadoes. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Auto-Nowcast (ANC) system is one of the key forecast tools in the ATEC Four-Dimensional Weather System (4DWX) at WSMR, where its purpose is to aid WSMR meteorologists in their mission of very short term thunderstorm forecasting. Besides monitoring the weather activity throughout the region and warning personnel of potentially hazardous thunderstorms, forecasters play a key role in assisting with the day-to-day planning of test operations on the range by providing guidance with regard to weather conditions favorable to testing. Moreover, based on climatological information about the local weather conditions, forecasters advise their range customers about scheduling tests at WSMR months in advance. This paper reviews the NCAR ANC system, provides examples of the ANC system's use in thunderstorm forecasting, and describes climatological analyses of WSMR summertime thunderstorm activity relevant for long-range planning of tests. The climatological analysis illustrates that radar-detected convective cells with reflectivity of Ն35 dBZ at WSMR are 1) short lived, with 76% having lifetimes of less than 30 min; 2) small, with 67% occupying areas of less than 25 km 2 ; 3) slow moving, with 79% exhibiting speeds of less than 4 m s Ϫ1 ; 4) moderately intense, with 80% showing reflectivities in excess of 40 dBZ; and 5) deep, with 80% of the storms reaching far enough above the freezing level to be capable of generating lightning.

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“…A number of observational studies have shown that individual convective cells have mean lifetimes of about 20 min. Battan (1953) and Foote and Mohr (1979) found mean durations of 23 and 21 min, respectively. However, Battan reported that cells that merged with one another had longer durations.…”

Section: Lifetime Organization and Motion Of Convective Stormsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Nowcasting Thunderstorms: A Status Report

Wilson¹,

Cṙook²,

Mueller³

et al. 1998

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

338

179

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This paper reviews the status of forecasting convective precipitation for time periods less than a few hours (nowcasting). Techniques for nowcasting thunderstorm location were developed in the 1960s and 1970s by extrapolating radar echoes. The accuracy of these forecasts generally decreases very rapidly during the first 30 min because of the very short lifetime of individual convective cells. Fortunately more organized features like squall lines and supercells can be successfully extrapolated for longer time periods. Physical processes that dictate the initiation and dissipation of convective storms are not necessarily observable in the past history of a particular echo development; rather, they are often controlled by boundary layer convergence features, environmental vertical wind shear, and buoyancy. Thus, successful forecasts of storm initiation depend on accurate specification of the initial thermodynamic and kinematic fields with particular attention to convergence lines. For these reasons the ability to improve on simple extrapolation techniques had stagnated until the present national observational network modernization program. The ability to observe small-scale boundary layer convergence lines is now possible with operational Doppler radars and satellite imagery. In addition, it has been demonstrated that high-resolution wind retrievals can be obtained from single Doppler radar. Two methods are presently under development for using these modern datasets to forecast thunderstorm evolution: knowledge-based expert systems and numerical forecasting models that are initialized with radar data. Both these methods are very promising and progressing rapidly. Operational tests of expert systems are presently taking place in the United Kingdom and in the United States.

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Results of a Randomized Hail Suppression Experiment in Northeast Colorado. Part VI:Post HocStratification by Storm Intensity and Type

Cited by 17 publications

References 0 publications

Statistical properties of cloud lifecycles in cloud-resolving models

Statistical properties of cloud lifecycles in cloud-resolving models

The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part IV: The White Sands Missile Range Auto-Nowcast System

Nowcasting Thunderstorms: A Status Report

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