What are the rules that govern a naive T cell's prospects for survival or division after export from the thymus into the periphery? To help address these questions, we combine data from existing studies with robust mathematical models to estimate the absolute contributions of thymopoiesis, peripheral division, and loss or differentiation to the human naive CD4 ؉ T-cell pool between the ages of 0 and 20 years. Despite their decline in frequency in the blood, total body numbers of naive CD4 ؉ T cells increase throughout childhood and early adulthood. Our analysis shows that postthymic proliferation contributes more than double the number of cells entering the pool each day from the thymus. This ratio is preserved with age; as the thymus involutes, the average time between naive T-cell divisions in the periphery lengthens. We also show that the expected residence
IntroductionAn adult human has a population of approximately 10 11 naive T cells circulating in the peripheral lymphoid organs and blood. From early in development, this population is generated and sustained by thymic export and division on the periphery, and is estimated to comprise at least 10 8 different T-cell receptor specificities, 1 providing a broad spectrum of protection in a diverse pathogen environment.The rate of export of naive T cells from the thymus declines substantially with age in healthy persons, 2 but estimates of the total number of cells exported from the thymus over a person's lifetime are still approximately 10-fold greater than the total number of naive T cells in an adult at any one time; an estimate of daily thymic output based on the study of Steinmann et al 2 integrated over 80 years is 5 ϫ 10 12 cells. Furthermore, at least a subset of naive cells continues to divide slowly after release from the thymus into the periphery. These 2 observations imply that turnover and replacement occurs in the naive T-cell pool. What are the rules that govern a circulating naive cell's prospects for survival and proliferation? Do these rules change as we age and, if so, how? Identifying these rules requires a combination of experimental approaches and mathematical models, and will provide an essential background for understanding the dynamics of the T-cell pool when it is dysregulated-for example, during the reconstitution of the T-cell pools after medical interventions that induce lymphopenia, or after antiretroviral therapy in HIV infection. 3 As a step toward answering these questions, here we quantify the contributions of proliferation, loss, and thymic input to the development of the healthy naive T-cell compartment. We focus on naive CD4 ϩ T-cell dynamics in persons up to age 20. The youngest age groups might be expected to have the most dynamic T-cell populations because rates of thymic export are highest and physiologic growth, in particular growth of blood volume and lymphoid tissue, is continuously altering the environment in which the T cells circulate and encounter homeostatic signals.Currently, the most direct methods for measurin...