Responses of the East Asian winter monsoon to global warming in CMIP5 models

Abstract

This paper studies how the anthropogenic‐induced global warming affects the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) by using 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The simulated present‐day EAWM is evaluated and future projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are presented in terms of the climatology and interannual variability. All 26 models can well reproduce the spatial pattern of EAWM climatology and 16 out of the 26 models can reasonably capture major features of interannual variability. The projection made by 26‐model ensemble mean indicate that winter surface air temperature averaged over 20°–60°N, 100°–140°E will increase by 3 °C in RCP4.5 and 5.5 °C in RCP8.5 towards the end of the 21st century. The corresponding regional mean precipitation will increase by 12.3% in RCP4.5 and 21.8% in RCP8.5. The strong warming over high‐latitude North Pacific due to melting sea ice in the Bering Sea and Okhotsk Sea leads to significant intensification and a northward shift of the Aleutian Low, resulting in prominent increase in the low‐level northerly along the coastal regions of northeastern Asia. At 500 hPa the characteristic East Asian Trough is projected to weaken slightly and tilt more eastward with latitude. The selected 16‐model ensemble mean projects future enhanced interannual variability of surface air temperature and sea‐level pressure over mid‐latitude North Pacific and high‐latitude East Asia (EA) and reduced variability over eastern China, suggesting that the EAWM will be more variable in the high‐latitude EA and mid‐latitude North Pacific but less variable in East China. Accordingly, the year‐to‐year precipitation variability will be significantly enhanced over high‐latitude EA. Majority of the 26 models project that the leading mode of EAWM interannual variation (the ‘northern mode’) will become more dominant in the warmer climate.

Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China

“…We found that the frequency of conducive patterns increases notably under anthropogenic influence. We note that the simulated large-scale circulation changes by anthropogenic influence in this work resemble the well-documented climate response to greenhouse warming in many previous studies (e.g., Fyfe et al, 1999;Hori & Ueda, 2006;Shindell et al, 1999;Xu et al, 2016). Namely, anthropogenic influence has increased the probability of the occurrence of similar circulation patterns conducive to severe haze by about 45% in January 2013 and 27% in December 2015, respectively.…”

The Asian Monsoon and its Future Change in Climate Models: A Review

“…However, there is no consensus on precipitation changes over the Maritime Continent (Jourdain et al 2013). Northeasterly winds over Southeast Asia and the northern South China Sea will increase (Xu et al 2016) with cyclonic circulation anomalies over the South China Sea (Siew et al 2014). Associated with these cyclonic anomalies, a northward and southward expansion of the ITCZ is projected, with rainfall increasing at ~10°N and ~5°S (Siew et al 2014).…”

“…Based on the surface meridional wind strength index, the ensemble mean of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models shows a weakening (strengthening) East Asian winter monsoon circulation north (south) of approximately 25°N, associated with the northward shift of the Aleutian Low, and decreased northwest-southeast thermal and sea level pressure differences across Northeast Asia (Jiang and Tian 2013). The CMIP5 MME projects significant intensification and a northward shift of the Aleutian Low, associated with strong warming over the high-latitude North Pacific owing to a reduction of sea ice in the Bering Sea and the Okhotsk Sea (Ogata et al 2014;Hong et al 2016;Xu et al 2016). A cyclonic circulation anomaly north of 40°N and an anticyclonic anomaly south of 40°N in the North Pacific are consistent with the positive trend of the AO.…”

Long-term change in rainfall distribution in Northeast Thailand: will cropping systems be able to adapt?

“…Benefit from additional dry season rainfall remains marginal but more remarkable effects are expected in the future if these trends persist, as expected according to the most updated climate projections for the East Asian winter monsoon (Xu et al, 2016). The benefit of additional rainwater for crop production should also be considered in light of the expected warming trend.…”