The effects of first-line chemotherapy on overall survival (OS) might be confounded by subsequent therapies in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We examined whether progression-free survival (PFS), post-progression survival (PPS), or tumor response could be valid surrogate endpoints for OS after first-line chemotherapies in advanced NSCLC by using individual-level data, given the lack of research in this area. Between April 2009 and June 2011, 50 patients with advanced non-squamous NSCLC treated with cisplatin and pemetrexed as first-line chemotherapy were analyzed. The relationships of PFS, PPS, and tumor response with OS were analyzed at the individual level. Spearman rank correlation analysis and linear regression analysis showed that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.89, P < 0.05, R 2 = 0.79), PFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.67, P < 0.05, R 2 = 0.39), and tumor shrinkage was weakly correlated with OS (r = 0.36, P < 0.05, R 2 = 0.14). Performance status at the beginning of second-line treatment, the best response to second-line treatment, and number of regimens used after progression following first-line chemotherapy were significantly associated with PPS (P < 0.05). Analysis of individual-level data suggested that PPS could be used as a surrogate for OS in patients with advanced nonsquamous NSCLC with unknown oncogenic driver mutations and therefore limited options for subsequent chemotherapy. Our findings also suggest that subsequent treatment after disease progression following first-line chemotherapy may greatly influence OS. These results should be validated in other larger populations.
Key words: non-small cell lung cancer, overall survival, post-progression survival, progression-free survival, tumor responseLung cancer is the most common cause of cancerrelated mortality worldwide, with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) accounting for approximately 85% of lung cancers [1]. Overall survival (OS) is considered the most reliable endpoint in cancer studies, and when studies can be conducted to adequately assess survival, it is usually the preferred endpoint [2]. This endpoint is precise, easy to measure, and can be documented by the date of death. Surrogate endpoints such as tumor response and progression-free survival (PFS) are also useful endpoints for phase II oncology clinical trials because they can be measured earlier, can be measured more conveniently, and occur more frequently than the main endpoints of interest, which are referred to as the true endpoints.In view of the growing number of drugs and combinations thereof that are available for the treatment of NSCLC, the effects of first-line chemotherapy on OS might be confounded by subsequent therapies [3]. Indeed, PFS improvements do not necessarily result in an improved OS, as shown by recent randomized trials in patients with NSCLC [4]. In recent years, as for breast, ovarian, and colorectal cancers [5][6][7], a growing number of active compounds are available for second-or third-line chemotherapy for advanc...