Response of Water Resources to Future Climate Change in a High-Latitude River Basin

Abstract

Global water resources are affected by climate change as never before. However, it is still unclear how water resources in high latitudes respond to climate change. In this study, the water resource data for 2021–2050 in the Naoli River Basin, a high-latitude basin in China, are calculated by using the SWAT-Modflow Model and future climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show a decreasing trend. When compared to the present, future streamflow is predicted to decrease by 2.73 × 108 m3 in 2021–2035 and by 1.51 × 108 m3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 8.16 × 108 m3 in 2021–2035 and by 0.56 × 108 m3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Similarly, groundwater recharge is expected to decrease by −1.79 × 108 m3 in 2021–2035 and −0.75 × 108 m3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP 4.5 scenario, and by −0.62 × 108 m3 in 2021–2035 and −0.12 × 108m3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. The worst impact of climate change on water resources in the basin could be frequent occurrences of extremely wet and dry conditions. In the RCP 4.5 scenario, the largest annual streamflow is predicted to be almost 14 times that of the smallest one, while it is 18 times for the groundwater recharge. Meanwhile, in the RCP 8.5 scenario, inter-annual fluctuations are expected to be more severe. The difference is 17 times between the largest annual streamflow and the lowest annual one. Moreover, the value is 19 times between the largest and lowest groundwater recharge. This indicates a significant increase in conflict between water use and supply.

Agricultural Irrigation Water Requirement and Its Response to Climatic Factors Based on Remote Sensing and Single Crop Coefficient Method

“…On the whole, the Rice planting area has not changed much in the past 10 years. Local water use has exceeded the amount of available water resources, limiting the expansion of Rice area (Qi et al, 2018;Qi et al, 2019). However, the area also did not decrease significantly because Rice is the most economically efficient.…”

Quantifying the Individual Contributions of Climate Change, Dam Construction, and Land Use/Land Cover Change to Hydrological Drought in a Marshy River

“…Located in China's high-latitude northeast corner, the Naoli River Basin (NRB) is a prime example with a typical marshy river [20] that can be sensitive to climate change and human activities. While air temperature and population growth have increased rapidly in the region in the past five decades, many of the wetlands in the NRB have been converted into agricultural land, making the region one of China's most important commodity grain production bases today [21]. Surface water is the most used water source for agriculture and public supplies.…”