Response of tree growth to a changing climate in boreal central Canada: A comparison of empirical, process-based, and hybrid modelling approaches

Girardin, Martin P.; Raulier, Frédéric; Bernier, Pierre Y.; Tardif, Jacques

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.12.010

Cited by 104 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…Other studies focused on the drivers of carbon allocation. For example, in Manitoba, Canada, a model related GPP and carbon allocation to absorbed photosynthetically active radiation as a function of environmental constraints (Girardin et al, 2008). Another model, called CASSIA (Schiestl-Aalto et al, 2015), was developed to investigate how environmental factors and the ontogenetic stage of tree development influence the annual course of carbon sink-source dynamics in Scots pine stands.…”

Section: F Gennaretti Et Al: Ecophysiological Modeling Of Photosyntmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecophysiological modeling of photosynthesis and carbon allocation to the tree stem in the boreal forest

Gennaretti

Gea‐Izquierdo²,

Boucher³

et al. 2017

Biogeosciences

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Abstract. A better understanding of the coupling between photosynthesis and carbon allocation in the boreal forest, together with its associated environmental factors and mechanistic rules, is crucial to accurately predict boreal forest carbon stocks and fluxes, which are significant components of the global carbon budget. Here, we adapted the MAIDEN ecophysiological forest model to consider important processes for boreal tree species, such as nonlinear acclimation of photosynthesis to temperature changes, canopy development as a function of previous-year climate variables influencing bud formation and the temperature dependence of carbon partition in summer. We tested these modifications in the eastern Canadian taiga using black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) gross primary production and ring width data. MAIDEN explains 90 % of the observed daily gross primary production variability, 73 % of the annual ring width variability and 20-30 % of its high-frequency component (i.e., when decadal trends are removed). The positive effect on stem growth due to climate warming over the last several decades is well captured by the model. In addition, we illustrate how we improve the model with each introduced model adaptation and compare the model results with those of linear response functions. Our results demonstrate that MAIDEN simulates robust relationships with the most important climate variables (those detected by classical response-function analysis) and is a powerful tool for understanding how environmental factors interact with black spruce ecophysiology to influence present-day and future boreal forest carbon fluxes.

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Section: F Gennaretti Et Al: Ecophysiological Modeling Of Photosyntmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecophysiological modeling of photosynthesis and carbon allocation to the tree stem in the boreal forest

Gennaretti

Gea‐Izquierdo²,

Boucher³

et al. 2017

Biogeosciences

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“…There is a selection of approaches for modeling tree growth ranging from relatively simply models using climatic data only (Laroque & Smith 2003, Goldblum & Rigg 2005, Takahashi & Okuhara 2013) to more complex ones using additional ecophysiological variables as predictors for regression equations (Rathgeber et al 2005, Girardin et al 2008. For instance, Laroque & Smith (2003) and Takahashi & Okuhara (2013) used temperature and precipitation to predict tree-ring width, while Girardin et al (2008) extended this empirical approach by incorporating process-based physiological model results into the regression equations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, Laroque & Smith (2003) and Takahashi & Okuhara (2013) used temperature and precipitation to predict tree-ring width, while Girardin et al (2008) extended this empirical approach by incorporating process-based physiological model results into the regression equations. Rathgeber et al (2005) argue that empirical models based solely on meteorological variables are of weak predictive power, because of their limited ability to properly factor in the water budget.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate change on tree-ring growth of Scots pine, common beech and pedunculate oak in northeastern Germany

Bauwe¹,

Jurasinski²,

Scharnweber³

et al. 2016

iForest

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Tree growth depends, among other factors, largely on the prevailing climatic conditions. Therefore, changes to tree growth patterns are to be expected under climate change. Here, we analyze the tree-ring growth response of three major European tree species to projected future climate across a climatic (mostly precipitation) gradient in northeastern Germany. We used monthly data for temperature, precipitation, and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) over multiple time scales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) to construct models of tree-ring growth for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) at three pure stands, and for common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) at three mature mixed stands. The regression models were derived using a two-step approach based on partial least squares regression (PLSR) to extract potentially well explaining variables followed by ordinary least squares regression (OLSR) to consolidate the models to the least number of variables while retaining high explanatory power. The stability of the models was tested through a comprehensive calibration-verification scheme. All models were successfully verified with R²s ranging from 0.21 for the western pine stand to 0.62 for the beech stand in the east. For growth prediction, climate data forecasted until 2100 by the regional climate model WETTREG2010 based on the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario was used. For beech and oak, growth rates will likely decrease until the end of the 21 st century. For pine, modeled growth trends vary and range from a slight growth increase to a weak decrease in growth rates. The climatic gradient across the study area will possibly affect the future growth of oak with larger growth reductions towards the drier east. For beech, site-specific adaptations seem to override the influence of the climatic gradient. We conclude that Scots pine has great potential to remain resilient to projected climate change without any greater impairment, whereas common beech and pedunculate oak will likely face lesser growth under the expected warmer and dryer climate conditions. The results call for an adaptation of forest management to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for beech and oak.

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“…In such an approach, the spatial and temporal scales at which some vegetative processes were mathematically described did not correspond to the scales at which the data were acquired. This scale issue is overcome by other carbon-based models that take into account tree-growth processes in varying detail and degrees of complexity: (Federer et al, 1989;Fritts et al, 1991;LeBlanc and Foster, 1992;Foster and Leblanc, 1993;Medlyn et al, 1999;Roux et al, 2001;Berninger et al, 2004;Girardin et al, 2008). In their review, (Roux et al, 2001) raised two critical issues for tree-growth models that call for the development and testing of original modeling schemes: the representation of carbon allocation, storage and remobilization.…”

Section: Tree-growth Process Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Process models and model-data fusion in dendroecology

2014

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Dendrochronology (i.e., the study of annually dated tree-ring time series) has proved to be a powerful technique to understand tree-growth. This paper intends to show the interest of using ecophysiological modeling not only to understand and predict tree-growth (dendroecology) but also to reconstruct past climates (dendroclimatology). Process models have been used for several decades in dendroclimatology, but it is only recently that methods of model-data fusion have led to significant progress in modeling tree-growth as a function of climate and in reconstructing past climates. These model-data fusion (MDF) methods, mainly based on the Bayesian paradigm, have been shown to be powerful for both model calibration and model inversion. After a rapid survey of tree-growth modeling, we illustrate MDF with examples based on series of Southern France Aleppo pines and Central France oaks. These examples show that if plants experienced CO 2 fertilization, this would have a significant effect on tree-growth which in turn would bias the climate reconstructions. This bias could be extended to other environmental non-climatic factors directly or indirectly affecting annual ring formation and not taken into account in classical empirical models, which supports the use of more complex process-based models. Finally, we conclude by showing the interest of the data assimilation methods applied in climatology to produce climate re-analyses.

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Response of tree growth to a changing climate in boreal central Canada: A comparison of empirical, process-based, and hybrid modelling approaches

Cited by 104 publications

References 78 publications

Ecophysiological modeling of photosynthesis and carbon allocation to the tree stem in the boreal forest

Ecophysiological modeling of photosynthesis and carbon allocation to the tree stem in the boreal forest

Impact of climate change on tree-ring growth of Scots pine, common beech and pedunculate oak in northeastern Germany

Process models and model-data fusion in dendroecology

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