Response of the North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Climatology to Global Warming: Application of Dynamical Downscaling to CMIP5 Models

Zhang, Lei; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Emanuel, Kerry

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0496.1

Cited by 48 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Taking all three changes (centroid X , variance in X , and life‐time) into account, the eastward shift in cluster F is clear, though not statistically significant when only considering centroid X changes. As cluster F has genesis locations very close to the date line, this eastward shift would lead to a higher occurrence of central Pacific storms in the future, as previously discussed in the literature (Colbert et al, ; Li et al, ; Mori et al, ; Murakami et al, , ; Roberts et al, ; Yokoi et al, ; Zhang et al, ). This track type is also modulated by the central Pacific or Modoki ENSO.…”

Section: Future Climatementioning

confidence: 56%

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates

et al. 2017

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Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov‐Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north‐south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics.

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Section: Future Climatementioning

confidence: 56%

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates

et al. 2017

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“…Understanding the future of hurricanes and their destructive power is important to prepare coastlines and mitigate future losses. Hurricane climatologists are interested in long-term variability in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics such as storm frequency, intensity, track, genesis location, and duration [3,4]. These characteristics vary naturally over time based on large-scale climatic oscillations [3] and, in recent decades, because of the warming of the global climate [5,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Trends in the Location of the Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones

Tennille

Ellis

2017

Atmosphere

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Abstract:The climatology of tropical cyclones is an immediate research need, specifically to better understand their long-term patterns and elucidate their future in a changing climate. One important pattern that has recently been detected is the poleward shift of the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of tropical cyclones. This study further assessed the recent spatial changes in the LMI of tropical cyclones, specifically those of tropical storm strength or stronger in the North Atlantic and northern West Pacific basins. Analyses of moving decadal means suggested that LMI locations migrated south in the North Atlantic and north in the West Pacific. In addition to a linear trend, there is a cyclical migration of LMI that is especially apparent in the West Pacific. Relationships between LMI migration and intensity were explored, as well as LMI location relative to landfall. The southerly trend of LMI in the North Atlantic was most prevalent in the strongest storms, resulting in these storms reaching their LMI farther from land. The relationship between intensity and LMI migration in the West Pacific was not as clear, but the most intense storms have been reaching LMI closer to their eventual landfall location. This work adds to those emphasizing the importance of understanding the climatology of the most intense hurricanes and shows there are potential human impacts resulting from any migration of LMI.

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“…The frequency of extreme precipitation, total annual precipitation, extreme precipitation intensity, and maximum annual precipitation in Fujian Province increased linearly from 1960 to 2010 (Su et al, ). Under the influence of the rise in greenhouse gases, tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) exhibit robust increasing trends over the North Pacific, especially over the central subtropical Pacific region (Zhang et al, ). Further global warming is likely to lead to increased rainfall in Southeast China and especially an increase in typhoons and torrential rain.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences hurricanes) exhibit robust increasing trends over the North Pacific, especially over the central subtropical Pacific region (Zhang et al, 2017). Further global warming is likely to lead to increased rainfall in Southeast China and especially an increase in typhoons and torrential rain.…”

Section: 1029/2019jg005406mentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased Lateral Transfer of Soil Organic Carbon Induced by Climate and Vegetation Changes Over the Southeast Coastal Region of China

Liu

Wang

et al. 2019

JGR Biogeosciences

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Soil erosion and the subsequent lateral movement of soil carbon profoundly affect the spatial pattern of carbon sources and sinks in terrestrial ecosystems. The eight river basins of Fujian Province considered in this study are an important part of the southeastern coastal river basin of the ninth largest river system in China. In recent years, the erosion of soil and soil organic carbon in the southeast coastal region of China is not ideal owing to the high and concentrated rainfall, natural vegetation destruction, and other reasons. In this study, the soil organic carbon erosion and deposition rates related to erosion in the eight river basins of Fujian Province are quantified, and their spatial distribution characteristics are extracted. Based on the soil erosion rate from two national soil erosion surveys and topsoil carbon content from the Harmonized World Soil Database, we estimated that the lateral soil organic carbon erosion increased from 7.53 to 26.75 g C m−2 yr−1 in eight river basins of Fujian Province from 1995–1996 to 2010–2012. The soil organic carbon erosion rate in the eight river basins increased by 2.6 times, while the soil organic carbon erosion rate for the whole of China decreased by 44% during the same period. The increase in torrential rain and decrease in vegetation cover in the southeastern coastal areas largely contributed to the erosion of soil and soil organic carbon. The lateral transfer rate of soil organic carbon may be further exacerbated by the increase of torrential rain in the southeastern coastal areas of China.

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Response of the North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Climatology to Global Warming: Application of Dynamical Downscaling to CMIP5 Models

Cited by 48 publications

References 37 publications

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates

Spatial and Temporal Trends in the Location of the Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones

Increased Lateral Transfer of Soil Organic Carbon Induced by Climate and Vegetation Changes Over the Southeast Coastal Region of China

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