Response of carbon storage to land use change and Multi-Scenario predictions in Zunyi, China

Abstract

Evaluating and predicting how carbon storage (CS) responds to land use change can optimize future spatial layouts and coordinate the relationship between land use and ecosystem services. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of CS in Zunyi from 2000 to 2020, investigate the driving factors of CS, and predict spatiotemporal changes under multiple scenarios in 2030. Woodland (> 62%) and farmland (> 30%) are the main land use types in Zunyi. The land use changes included decreases in farmland (-0.92%) and grassland (-0.76%) and an increase in construction land (+ 0.92%). In 2000, 2010, and 2020, CS in Zunyi was 658.77×10^6 t, 661.44×10^6 t, and 658.35×10^6 t, respectively, initially increasing then decreasing. Woodland, farmland and grassland conversions to construction land and water were primarily responsible for CS loss. The NDVI is the main driving factor influencing the spatial pattern of CS (q > 10%). Furthermore, the impacts of the human footprint index and population density are increasing. In 2030, the CS in Zunyi is projected to decrease under the NDS, ECS and CDS scenarios. Under the ECS, CS is estimated to be 656.67×10^6 t, with the smallest decrease (-0.26%); moreover, this scenario effectively alleviates the decreases in farmland and woodland.