Respect for Human Rights as a Predictor of Arab Spring Intensity

Abstract

The popular uprisings of the Arab Spring have had a profound impact in the Arab World and beyond, and numerous researchers and commentators have explored the causes of these events. The present study sought to build upon an empirical exploration of political, economic, and social predictive factors of Arab Spring intensity by incorporating measures of countries' respect for human rights. Ordinal regression analyses found that countries' scores on the Cingranelli-Richards (CIRI) Physical Integrity Rights Index in 2010 significantly predicted levels of unrest experienced during the Arab Spring, such that countries who demonstrated less respect for physical integrity human rights experienced higher levels of unrest during the Arab Spring. The implications for future research and policy are discussed.