Resource pulses and human–wildlife conflicts: linking satellite indicators and ground data on forest productivity to predict brown bear damages

Abstract

Pulsed resources have prominent effects on community and ecosystem dynamics; however, there is little research on how resource pulses affect human–wildlife interactions. Tree masting is a common type of pulsed resource that represents a crucial food for many species and has important bottom‐up effects in food webs. In anthropogenic landscapes, years of food shortage after mast years can have negative outcomes for both people and wildlife, for instance when an increased use of anthropogenic foods by animals exacerbates human–wildlife conflicts. Here, we used novel remote sensing indicators of forest productivity and phenology, together with weather cues and ground measures of mast production, to assess whether years of masting and crop failures lead to changes in human–wildlife conflict occurrence. We used a unique 14‐year dataset including the production of European beech Fagus sylvatica seeds and brown bear Ursus arctos damage in the northeastern Carpathians as our model system. Linking these data in a panel regression framework, we found that temporal fluctuations in damage occurrence were sensitive to the year‐to‐year variation in beechnut production. Specifically, the number of damages during bear hyperphagia (i.e., September to December, when bears need to accumulate fat reserves prior to hibernation) was significantly higher in years with low beechnut production than in normal or mast years. Furthermore, we provide evidence that beech masting and failure can be predicted through a combination of remote‐sensing, weather, and field indicators of forest productivity and phenology. We demonstrate how pulsed resources, such as tree masting, can percolate through food webs to amplify human–wildlife conflict in human‐dominated landscapes. Given the recent range expansion of large carnivores and herbivores in many regions, including Europe, predicting years of natural food shortage can provide a pathway to proactive damage prevention, and thus to foster coexistence between wildlife and people.

Human-brown bear conflicts in Türkiye are driven by increased human presence around protected areas

“…While these results show a link between high bear numbers and the frequency of conflicts, prior studies show that reducing population sizes (i.e., harvesting) has little impact on the levels of HBCs, especially in regions where the availability of natural foods and foraging space is restricted (Acharya et al, 2017;Bautista et al, 2023). When space and food are restricted in natural habitats, wide-ranging mammals and especially bears, can shift towards humandominated landscapes which offer predictable and reliable sources of food with reduced foraging cost (Bautista et al, 2023;Kemahlı Aytekin, 2022). Protected areas in Türkiye represent little coverage of natural bear habitats, with only 6.3% and 4.6% of all forested areas within the Black Sea region and East Anatolia being protected based on the Corine database, and some of these forests are legally logged.…”

Individuality matters in human–wildlife conflicts: Patterns and fraction of damage‐making brown bears in the north‐eastern Carpathians

“…On the other hand, temporal fluctuations in the occurrence of damages are not necessarily related to particular individual behaviours but might be driven by external factors. For instance, bears can damage more apiaries in years when natural food availability is low (Bautista et al, 2022), especially in places where human food resources are more accessible to bears (i.e. near forests and far from villages) and not protected against access by bears (Bautista et al, 2021).…”

Predictors of brown bear predation events on livestock in the Romanian Carpathians

“…However, no changes to either incentive or reporting process occurred during the study period. The variation in mast production has been associated with changes in frequency of human-bear conflicts (Bautista et al, 2022); while we do not have information on the temporal and spatial distribution of natural food availability in our study area, it is more likely that food availability has a larger effect on recorded BPEs than the human/economic factors.…”