Resource management in a changing and uncertain climate

Abstract

Climate change is altering ecological systems throughout the world. Managing these systems in a way that ignores climate change will likely fail to meet management objectives. The uncertainty in projected climate‐change impacts is one of the greatest challenges facing managers attempting to address global change. In order to select successful management strategies, managers need to understand the uncertainty inherent in projected climate impacts and how these uncertainties affect the outcomes of management activities. Perhaps the most important tool for managing ecological systems in the face of climate change is active adaptive management, in which systems are closely monitored and management strategies are altered to address expected and ongoing changes. Here, we discuss the uncertainty inherent in different types of data on potential climate impacts and explore climate projections and potential management responses at three sites in North America. The Central Valley of California, the headwaters of the Klamath River in Oregon, and the barrier islands and sounds of North Carolina each face a different set of challenges with respect to climate change. Using these three sites, we provide specific examples of how managers are already beginning to address the threat of climate change in the face of varying levels of uncertainty.

Vulnerability assessment to climate change of three ecosystem-based forest management projects in Quebec

“…Few adaptation measures have been integrated into the management of natural resources in recent years due to the uncertainty associated with future climate predictions (Lawler et al 2010). …”

“…For example, by diversifying the species and genotypes planted after harvesting, it is possible to maintain current harvest levels while diminishing the risk of creating forests that are ill-adapted to future climate conditions. In addition, Lawler et al (2010) have proposed implementation of adaptation measures within a limited resource context as a function of the certainty level associated with future biophysical impacts. We could also look to prioritize adaptation measures based on their projected efficacy.…”

Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area

“…Land management agencies face increasing political and financial uncertainty because of political gridlock. Preparing for and responding to climate change will therefore be complicated by vast uncertainties (Peterson et al 2003, Millar et al 2007, Julius and West 2008, Baron et al 2009, Lawler et al 2010. Such uncertainties will make it difficult for managers to succeed at sustaining, in perpetuity, the benefits of public lands.…”

“…Many authors have advocated adaptive management and collaboration as key tools for providing the flexibility, learning, and public support needed to prepare for and respond to climate change and other rapid changes (Baron et al 2009, Heller and Zavaletta 2009, Lawler et al 2010). The experience with CAM at LCNCA gives the site a head start in addressing these emerging challenges.…”

Redesigning biodiversity conservation projects for climate change: examples from the field

“…This is especially true in the context of the many other current threats to natural systems (Peters and Myers 1991;Sala et al 2000;Root and Schneider 2006;Orr 2008). Numerous publications have outlined climate adaptation strategies for biodiversity (Hannah et al 2002a, b;Scott and Lemieux 2005;Vos et al 2008;Dunwiddie et al 2009;Lawler et al 2009;Hunter et al 2010). Examples in the literature include reducing existing threats, habitat restoration, increasing connectivity, changing conservation priorities, and moving species to more suitable habitats (Hulme 2005;Kareiva et al 2008;Mawdsley et al 2009;Krosby et al 2010).…”