Resolving the effect of climate change on fish populations

Abstract

Rijnsdorp, A. D., Peck, M. A., Engelhard, G. H., Möllmann, C., and Pinnegar, J. K. 2009. Resolving the effect of climate change on fish populations. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1570–1583. This paper develops a framework for the study of climate on fish populations based on first principles of physiology, ecology, and available observations. Environmental variables and oceanographic features that are relevant to fish and that are likely to be affected by climate change are reviewed. Working hypotheses are derived from the differences in the expected response of different species groups. A review of published data on Northeast Atlantic fish species representing different biogeographic affinities, habitats, and body size lends support to the hypothesis that global warming results in a shift in abundance and distribution (in patterns of occurrence with latitude and depth) of fish species. Pelagic species exhibit clear changes in seasonal migration patterns related to climate-induced changes in zooplankton productivity. Lusitanian species have increased in recent decades (sprat, anchovy, and horse mackerel), especially at the northern limit of their distribution areas, while Boreal species decreased at the southern limit of their distribution range (cod and plaice), but increased at the northern limit (cod). Although the underlying mechanisms remain uncertain, available evidence suggests climate-related changes in recruitment success to be the key process, stemming from either higher production or survival in the pelagic egg or larval stage, or owing to changes in the quality/quantity of nursery habitats.

Changes in the abundance and spatial distribution of the Atlantic chub mackerel (<i>Scomber colias</i>) in the pelagic ecosystem and fisheries off Portugal

“…Temperature is a possible candidate since it affects growth and survival of early life stages and therefore recruitment success (Rijnsdorp et al 2009). Moreover, there is some evidence that sardine recruitment is negatively affected by temperature (Santos et al 2012).…”

“…On the other hand, sardine distribution extends to the North Sea, showing large abundance and a major recruitment area in the Bay of Biscay (Silva et al 2009). Northward shifts in distribution linked to global warming have been documented for numerous pelagic fish populations in the Atlantic, such as mackerel and horse mackerel (Rijnsdorp et al 2009, ICES 2012b. Moreover, both sardine and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicholus) have expanded their distribution and spawning areas from the English Channel to the entire North Sea (Alheit et al 2012).…”

International Perspectives on the Effects of Climate Change on Inland Fisheries

“…Since 1995, freezing-over has shifted from early November to late December (Litvinov and Roshchupko 2010), coinciding with a decline of coldwater species including Burbot and European smelt and an increase in Black and Caspian Sea Sprat. Growth rates of Burbot and other coldwater species have decreased, and warming-induced lowered oxygen availability has reduced benthic species such as Ruff Gymnocephalus cernuus (Wrona et al 2006;Rijnsdorp et al 2009). Like the Caspian Sea, the Azov Sea has been affected by increased air temperatures, decreased precipitation and winter ice covers, increased salinity, and decreased level, resulting in reduced commercial catches of Pikeperch and Common Bream (Goptarev et al 1991).…”

Shifts in nursery habitat utilization by 0-group plaice in the western Dutch Wadden Sea

“…The influence of anthropogenic disturbances, including human-induced climate change, on the quality of coastal and estuarine habitats and its fish assemblages has been widely reported (Johnson et al, 1998;Jackson et al, 2001;Thrush et al, 2008;Tulp et al, 2008;. Climate-induced temperature change, for instance, has been suggested as one of the main driving forces eliciting changes in species distribution and abundance in two common European flatfish species (plaice Pleuronectes platessa and sole Solea solea) in the North Sea owing to effects in the quality (value for growth) and/or quantity (area) of their nursery habitat (Rijnsdorp et al, 2009;Teal et al, 2012).…”