Resolving Future Arctic/Midlatitude Weather Connections

Wang, Muyin

doi:10.1029/2018ef000901

Cited by 31 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…We conclude that the record cold event in the Prairie region of Canada is indirectly linked to the record low sea ice event in the Bering Sea through the changes in storm activity over the North Pacific and a pattern shift of the jet stream. The changes in jet stream pattern documented in this study correspond well with the previous findings of recent jet stream variability, in conjunction with the warming climate [25,26]. However, this study and the proposed mechanism is limited to the cold event of 2019 only and we are not proposing a generalized mechanism as there was no recorded history of such widespread extreme cold events since 1936.…”

Section: Discussion and Summarysupporting

confidence: 88%

An Unusual Cold February 2019 in Saskatchewan—A Case Study Using NCEP Reanalysis Datasets

Basu

Sauchyn

2019

Climate

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In February 2019, central Canada, and especially the province of Saskatchewan, experienced extreme cold weather. It was the coldest February in 82 years and the second coldest in 115 years. In this study, we examine National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis 1 data to understand the atmospheric processes leading to this cold snap. A detailed investigation of surface air temperature, sea level pressure, surface fluxes, and winds revealed a linkage between the North Pacific storm track and the February cold snap. A shift in the jet stream pattern triggered by the storm activity over the North Pacific caused a high-pressure blocking pattern, which resulted in unusual cold temperatures in Saskatchewan in February. This study demonstrates the potential for extreme cold in a warming climate; weather records in Saskatchewan show an increase in minimum winter temperature by 4–5 °C.

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Section: Discussion and Summarysupporting

confidence: 88%

An Unusual Cold February 2019 in Saskatchewan—A Case Study Using NCEP Reanalysis Datasets

Basu

Sauchyn

2019

Climate

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“…While delayed sea ice freeze up during autumn in the Chukchi, Kara and Baffin Bay may help to support existing long wave patterns (Kug et al, 2015;Overland and Wang, 2018), late winter such as February is well after freeze up, which limits direct sea/atm heat fluxes. Late winter movements of the stratospheric polar vortex are mostly due to internal atmospheric variability (Shepherd, 2016;Seviour, 2017), although there are suggestions of autumn snow and warm winter temperatures as having a contribution (Cohen et al, 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…For the potential interaction between the Arctic and midlatitude weather, there is the concept that November-December has more of a regional tropospheric pathway (Honda et al, 2009;Orsolini et al, 2012;Francis and Vavrus, 2015;Chen et al, 2016;McKenna et al, 2017;Overland and Wang, 2018), whereas January-March has a more hemispheric stratospheric pathway that takes time to develop (Cohen et al, 2012;Kim et al, 2014;Nakamura et al, 2016;Zhang et al, 2018). There is considerable literature on Northern Hemisphere circulation related to the stratospheric pathway (Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001;Martius et al, 2009;DiCapua and Coumou, 2016;Hoshi et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of the winter polar vortex on greater North America

Wang

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Winter weather in the subarctic and lower latitudes can be influenced by the repositioning of the polar vortex away from being centred near the North Pole, extending over regional locations of subarctic continents. One example was the “Beast from the East” event in Eurasia in March 2018, which brought snow to much of Europe. We are interested in extended (week to a month) North American weather events, and especially the impacts from a location of the polar vortex centre over and near Greenland. For a tropospheric polar vortex location index, we use low 500 hPa geopotential heights (GPH) over greater Greenland from values of the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) below negative 1.0 SD (1951–2018 base period). February is a preferred month with 10 low GBI events beginning 1989. Composite 100 and 500 hPa GPH for these 10 cases show hemispheric‐wide features with a trough/ridge/trough pattern extending from eastern Siberia eastward to Greenland and spanning both the stratospheric and tropospheric polar vortex. Associated extreme weather as seen in 2015 and 2018 include cold temperatures on the eastern United States, warm monthly temperatures (>5.0°C anomalies) in California with drought conditions, and record sea ice loss in the winter Bering Sea. Results support the concept that November–December has a regional tropospheric pathway for Arctic/mid‐latitude weather interactions due to delayed autumn sea ice freeze up, whereas January–March has a more hemispheric pathway related to stratospheric polar vortex movement that is delayed into late winter.

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“…Poor predictive capabilities may result in an inability to properly predict teleconnections and longer‐term changes. For example, severe weather in the midlatitudes may be influenced as changes in thermodynamic heating associated with sea ice loss influence the position of the jet stream (e.g., Cohen et al, ; Francis & Vavrus, ; Handorf et al, ; Overland & Wang, ). Assimilation of sea ice observations can lead to more skillful forecasts of ice extent several months in advance (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space‐Based Observations for Understanding Changes in the Arctic‐Boreal Zone

Duncan

Ott

Abshire

et al. 2020

Reviews of Geophysics

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Observations taken over the last few decades indicate that dramatic changes are occurring in the Arctic‐Boreal Zone (ABZ), which are having significant impacts on ABZ inhabitants, infrastructure, flora and fauna, and economies. While suitable for detecting overall change, the current capability is inadequate for systematic monitoring and for improving process‐based and large‐scale understanding of the integrated components of the ABZ, which includes the cryosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Such knowledge will lead to improvements in Earth system models, enabling more accurate prediction of future changes and development of informed adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this article, we review the strengths and limitations of current space‐based observational capabilities for several important ABZ components and make recommendations for improving upon these current capabilities. We recommend an interdisciplinary and stepwise approach to develop a comprehensive ABZ Observing Network (ABZ‐ON), beginning with an initial focus on observing networks designed to gain process‐based understanding for individual ABZ components and systems that can then serve as the building blocks for a comprehensive ABZ‐ON.

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Resolving Future Arctic/Midlatitude Weather Connections

Cited by 31 publications

References 49 publications

An Unusual Cold February 2019 in Saskatchewan—A Case Study Using NCEP Reanalysis Datasets

An Unusual Cold February 2019 in Saskatchewan—A Case Study Using NCEP Reanalysis Datasets

Impact of the winter polar vortex on greater North America

Space‐Based Observations for Understanding Changes in the Arctic‐Boreal Zone

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