Resilient Royals: How Arab Monarchies Hang On

Abstract

No monarchy fell to revolution in the Arab Spring. What accounts for this monarchical exceptionalism? Analysts have argued that royal autocracies are inherently more resilient than authoritarian republics due to their cultural foundations and institutional structure. By contrast, this paper leverages comparative analysis to offer a different explanation emphasizing deliberate regime strategies made in circumstances of geographic fortuity. The mobilization of cross-cutting coalitions, hydrocarbon wealth, and foreign patronage account for the resilience of monarchical dictatorships in the Middle East. Without these factors, kingships are just as vulnerable to overthrow as any other autocracy—something that history indicates, given the long list of deposed monarchies in the region over the past half-century.

Bread, Justice, or Opportunity? The Determinants of the Arab Awakening Protests

“…Hence divide and conquer tactics are often effective. Yom and Gause (2012) add that some monarchies developed cross-cutting popular coalitions based on economic payments and policy guarantees to particular groups. Oil wealth often reinforces this by providing the financing for welfare programs, public jobs, and state contracts as well as creating an internal security apparatus to repress dissent.…”

Durable, Yet Different: Monarchies in the Arab Spring

“…7 The two approaches are complementary, as the monarchies' rent revenues based on exporting natural resources are supplemented by external financial support. 8 Rent revenues, so the argument goes, are distributed to key social groups in order to stabilize political rule. Rentierism tries to explain the consolidation of monarchical rule by highlighting the continuous capacity of targeted state spending.…”

Long-Term Monarchical Survival in the Middle East: A Configurational Comparison, 1945-2012

“…Put differently, the breakdown of the "Arab presidents for life," as Roger Owen has called them (Owen 2012), and the survival of the eight Middle Eastern monarchies throughout the course of the "Arab Uprisings" leads us to pose the fundamental question of what the specific conditions are for the survival of this subtype of authoritarian regime (Lucas 2011;Yom 2012;Yom and Gause III 2012).…”