Resilience by design: A deep uncertainty approach for water systems in a changing world

Brown, Casey; Boltz, Frederick; Freeman, Sarah; Tront, Jacqueline Marie; Rodrı́guez, Diego J.

doi:10.1016/j.wasec.2019.100051

Cited by 42 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“… Resilience by design in Mexico City: A participatory human-hydrologic systems approach (Freeman et al, 2020) The study developed by Freeman et al (2020) in Mexico City highlights issues of building a freshwater resilience of urban systems among several territories and stakeholders. In order to find a way to manage systems of feedbacks and tradeoffs between stakeholders, Freeman et al have developed a Resilience by Design methodology (Brown et al, 2020). The aim of this methodology is to identify with https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-217 Preprint.…”

Section: Integrating Resilience Into Urban Management Through Collaborative Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resilience issues and challenges into built environments: a review

Heinzlef

Barocca

Leone

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. This paper proposes a review of existing strategies and tools aiming at facilitating the operationalization of the concept of resilience into built environments. In a context of climate change, increased risks in urban areas and growing uncertainties, urban managers are forced to innovate in order to design appropriate risk management strategies. Among these strategies, making cities resilient has become an imperative. This injunction to innovation fits perfectly with the urban, economic, political, social and ecological complexity of the contemporary world. As a result, the concept of resilience is integrated into the issues of urban sprawl and the associated risks. However, despite this theoretical and conceptual adequacy, resilience remains complex to integrate into the practices of urban planners and territorial actors. Its multitude of definitions and approaches has contributed to its abstraction and lack of operationalization. This review highlights the multitude of approaches and methodologies to address the bias of the lack of integration of the concept of resilience in risk management. The limit is the multiplication of these strategies which lead to conceptual vagueness and a lack of tangible application at the level of local actors. The challenge would then be to design a toolbox to concentrate the various existing tools, conceptual models and decision support systems in order to facilitate the autonomy and responsibility of local stakeholders in integrating the concept of resilience into risk management strategies.

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Section: Integrating Resilience Into Urban Management Through Collaborative Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resilience issues and challenges into built environments: a review

Heinzlef

Barocca

Leone

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Alternative infrastructure designs and policies are then evaluated over these scenarios with no assessment of their likelihoods, since they are unknown. Approaches applying this philosophy include Robust Decision Making (RDM) (Lempert et al, 2010;Shortridge & Guikema, 2016;Hadjimichael, Quinn, Wilson, et al, 2020; and its Multi-Objective extension, MORDM (Kasprzyk et al, 2013;Herman et al, 2014;Quinn, Reed, & Keller, 2017;, info-gap decision theory (Ben-Haim, 2006;Hine & Hall, 2010;Korteling et al, 2013), and decision scaling Steinschneider et al, 2015;Knighton et al, 2017;Ray et al, 2018;Freeman et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Traditional planning mechanisms hedge against these risks by designing systems to be robust to historical climate variability. Yet changing climate and socioeconomic conditions make these methods inappropriate for the “deeply” uncertain nature of the future (Brown et al., 2020). Deep uncertainty refers to conditions under which planners do not know, or cannot agree on, the probability distribution of the parameters describing a system model, its boundary conditions, or the model itself (Lempert & Collins, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Can Exploratory Modeling of Water Scarcity Vulnerabilities and Robustness Be Scenario Neutral?

2020

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“…Traditional planning mechanisms hedge against these risks by designing systems to be robust to historical climate variability. Yet changing climate and socioeconomic conditions make these methods inappropriate for the "deeply" uncertain nature of the future (Brown et al, 2020). Deep uncertainty refers to conditions under which planners do not know, or cannot agree on, the probability distribution of the parameters describing a system model, its boundary conditions, or the model itself (Lempert & Collins, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can exploratory modeling of water scarcity vulnerabilities and robustness be scenario neutral?

Quinn

Hadjimichael

Reed

2020

Preprint

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Planning under deep uncertainty, when probabilistic characterizations of the future are unknown, is a major challenge in water resources management. Many planning frameworks advocate for "scenario-neutral" analyses in which alternative policies are evaluated over plausible future scenarios with no assessment of their likelihoods. Instead, these frameworks use sensitivity analysis to discover which uncertain factors have the greatest influence on performance. This knowledge can be used to design monitoring programs and adaptive policies that respond to changes in the critical uncertainties. However, scenario-neutral analyses make implicit assumptions about the range and independence of the uncertain factors that may not be consistent with the coupled human-hydrologic processes influencing the system. These assumptions could influence which factors are found to be most important and which policies are most robust, belying their neutrality; assuming uniformity and independence could have decision-relevant implications. This study illustrates these implications using a multistakeholder planning problem within the Colorado River Basin, where hundreds of rights holders vie for the river's limited water under the law of prior appropriation. Variance-based sensitivity analyses are performed to assess users' vulnerabilities to changing hydrologic conditions using four experimental designs: (1) scenario-neutral samples of hydrologic factors, centered on recent historical conditions, (2) scenarios informed by climate projections, (3) scenarios informed by paleohydrologic reconstructions, and (4) scenario-neutral samples of hydrologic factors spanning all previous experimental designs. Differences in sensitivities and user robustness rankings across the experiments illustrate the challenges of inferring the most consequential drivers of vulnerabilities to design effective monitoring programs and robust management policies.Plain Language Summary How we should best manage our water resources depends on future water supply and demand, both of which are changing in uncertain ways as a consequence of climate change, population growth, and sectoral change. This makes it challenging to decide between alternative management plans that may be most favorable under different conditions. Given this uncertainty, many planning frameworks advocate for implementing "robust" management plans that perform reasonably well over a wide range of conditions. These plans can then be modified adaptively to cater to particular climate and socioeconomic conditions as our uncertainty about the future is reduced. Unfortunately, we find that the determination of which plan is most robust, and what conditions should trigger adaptation, is an additional challenge. In assessing the vulnerabilities of hundreds of water users in the Upper Colorado River Basin to different possible drought conditions, we find different users to be robust depending on which scenarios are considered. The sensitivities of these users' water shortages to different climate conditio...

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Resilience by design: A deep uncertainty approach for water systems in a changing world

Cited by 42 publications

References 57 publications

Resilience issues and challenges into built environments: a review

Resilience issues and challenges into built environments: a review

Can Exploratory Modeling of Water Scarcity Vulnerabilities and Robustness Be Scenario Neutral?

Can exploratory modeling of water scarcity vulnerabilities and robustness be scenario neutral?

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