Residents’ future residential preference and its affecting factors in the rapid urbanization zone of rural China from a family life cycle perspective

Abstract

Understanding farmers’ future residential preferences and the factors affecting these choices is crucial for tackling the issues related to hollow village management and rural planning. Despite limited research on the role of the family life cycle, this study explores how the family life cycle, characteristics of the household head, livelihood strategies, and resource availability shape farmers’ future residential preferences. Data were collected from 777 households in China’s main grain-producing area. The findings reveal that 52.90% of households prefer to stay in their current rural residences. Other favored options are elderly care facilities (13.90%), living with children in the village (12.36%), and ancestral homes (11.68%). The family life cycle significantly affects these preferences (p < 0.01), with changes in family structure and age leading to different living choices. Specifically, households in the initial (71.29%), burden (70.32%), and stable stages (40.14%) prefer their current rural residences, while those in the maintenance and empty-nest stages opt for living with their children’s residences (22.22% and 16.96%, respectively) or in elderly care facilities (30.00% and 33.93%). Meanwhile, age, health, income, livelihood strategies, and land ownership also markedly influence the choice of residence. Recommendations include educational programs for elderly rural residents, improving older individuals’ adaptability to rural changes, creating more rural employment opportunities, and enhancing medical and infrastructural services for the sustainable rural development.