Residential real estate analysis in Serbia

Abstract

The analysis of Serbia's residential real estate market is the main goal of this paper. Price movements in that part of the market affect price and financial stability equally, which are thus the main goals of most central banks. Prior to the highly contagious COVID-19 pandemic, there was a gradual increase in the number of transactions involving real estate and prices, with oscillations observed throughout the second quarter of 2020. In this paper, we will present the available databases from the Serbian residential real estate market, as well as regulations that have been in place since the 2000s. By analyzing the trajectory in the long run of the housing credit share to GDP by using a Hodrick-Prescott one-sided filter with the parameter set to 400,000 and correlation and regression analysis, the paper's concluding part will determine whether there is a price bubble in this market segment. According to the analysis, there is currently no price bubble in Serbia's residential real estate market.