Reservoir performance and dynamic management under plausible assumptions of future climate over seasons to decades

Ward, Martin; Brown, Casey; Baroang, Kye M.; Kaheil, Yasir

doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0616-0

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Ward et al, 2013;Condon et al, 2015) and include the flexibility to adjust for unexpected future changes. Ward et al, 2013;Condon et al, 2015) and include the flexibility to adjust for unexpected future changes.…”

Section: Water Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Where changes to water-use policies, dam operations, or other water control structures are feasible, they should be designed to address current and projected future changes in streamflow (e.g. Ward et al, 2013;Condon et al, 2015) and include the flexibility to adjust for unexpected future changes. Negotiated changes to water management that are based only on correcting historic streamflow change may be insufficient to address more severe current or future changes (Carey et al, 2014;Kirby et al, 2014) or, worse, may exacerbate future streamflow change.…”

Section: Water Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

et al. 2015

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Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services.In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

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Section: Water Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Water Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

et al. 2015

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“…After the simulation of scenarios of climate change and water demand increasing in the Rozva reservoir, in Zimbabwe, Ncube et al (2011) have concluded that the decision makers should anticipate the consequences of the impacts. Ward et al (2013) have proposed the application of the dynamic management in the Angat Dam in Philippines. This adaptation strategy adjusts the water allocation each year during the dry season based on seasonal forecasts and updated climate normals.…”

Section: Simulation Of An Alternative Operation Rulementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The strategies aiming to improve the reservoir operation rules may be considered an adaptation measure to mitigate the impacts of climate variability and climate change (Zhou and Guo, 2013;Ward et al, 2013). This measure may be especially useful in vulnerable regions such as Northeast Brazil.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Supply Reservoir Operation in Relation to Climate Variability: Pirapama River Basin (Pernambuco-Brazil)

Bacalhau¹,

Neto²,

Montenegro³

2017

J. Urb. and Environ. Engng

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Abstract:The vulnerability of water resources systems is highly influenced by the climate variability of the region. The effects are amplified when the region has high population density and important economic activities such as the Recife Metropolitan Region (RMR), whose population is 3.8 million inhabitants, corresponding to 51% of the urban population in Pernambuco State. The Pirapama reservoir was designed to produce 5.6 m³/s, which corresponds to 37% of the total water demand of the RMR. The objective of the paper is to define strategies for the Pirapama reservoir operation by using guide curves and taking into account the climate variability, particularly drought events, to minimize or even avoid the conditions of rationing and collapse of its storage. The rainfall-runoff model SMAP was used to simulate input streamflow in the period 1933−2014 and the water allocation model Acquanet was used to simulate the operation rules proposed. The guide curves were defined based on the Standard Runoff Index, which classify the input inflow in drought categories. For each drought category, a response goal was defined for withdrawal reduction. This strategy may be an efficient tool to deal with the climate variability present in Northeast Brazil, which can be amplified with the effects of the climate change. In this sense, the development of sustainable operation rules can be considered an adaptation measure for reducing the impacts of possible climate changes in the future.

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“…Other definitions of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability as well as different performance metrics have been developed and discussed in the literature [e.g., Moy et al, 1986;Jinno, 1995;Kundzewicz, 1995;Vogel and Bolognese, 1995;Kundzewicz and Kindler, 1995;Srinivasan et al, 1999;and Vogel et al, 1999;Ward et al, 2013;Moody and Brown, 2013;Steinschneider and Brown, 2012]. In recent studies, more parametric rules are developed for multireservoir systems [Nalbantis and Koutsoyiannis, 1997].…”

Section: Mehran Et Almentioning

confidence: 99%

A hybrid framework for assessing socioeconomic drought: Linking climate variability, local resilience, and demand

2015

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Socioeconomic drought broadly refers to conditions whereby the water supply cannot satisfy the demand. Most previous studies describe droughts based on large-scale meteorological/hydrologic conditions, ignoring the demand and local resilience to cope with climate variability. Reservoirs provide resilience against climatic extremes and play a key role in water supply and demand management. Here we outline a unique multivariate approach as a measure of socioeconomic drought, termed Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI). The model combines information on the inflow and reservoir storage relative to the demand. MSRRI combines (I) a "top-down" approach that focuses on processes/phenomena that cannot be simply controlled or altered by decision makers, such as climate change and variability, and (II) a "bottom-up" methodology that represents the local resilience and societal capacity to respond or adapt to droughts. MSRRI is based on a nonparametric multivariate distribution function that links inflow-demand reliability indicator to water storage resilience indicator. These indicators are used to assess socioeconomic drought during the Australian Millennium drought (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) and the 2011-2014 California drought. The results show that MSRRI is superior to univariate indices because it captures both early onset and persistence of water stress over time. The suggested framework can be applied to both individual reservoirs and a group of reservoirs in a region, and it is consistent with the currently available standardized drought indicators. MSRRI provides complementary information on socioeconomic drought development and recovery based on reservoir storage and demand that cannot be achieved from the commonly used drought indicators.

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Reservoir performance and dynamic management under plausible assumptions of future climate over seasons to decades

Cited by 9 publications

References 24 publications

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

Water Supply Reservoir Operation in Relation to Climate Variability: Pirapama River Basin (Pernambuco-Brazil)

A hybrid framework for assessing socioeconomic drought: Linking climate variability, local resilience, and demand

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