Reservoir operations under climate change: Storage capacity options to mitigate risk

Ehsani, N.; Vörösmarty, Charles J; Fekete, B M; Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.008

Cited by 224 publications

(144 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…Many researchers in different parts of the world have studied the impacts of climate variability and change on shifts in hydrological regimes and water resources (e.g., [25][26][27][28]). These studies assessed the current and future water resources availability and rainfall variability across the globe to support appropriate water resources planning and management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hence reservoir operation need to incorporate plans to address hydrologic non-stationarity and uncertainty caused by climate change [20,26,42,43]. Due to this, ensembles of Global Circulation Models (GCMs), scenarios and regional climate models (RCMs) used as input to hydrological model to generate future streamflow [44,45] that can be used as an input for reservoir operations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Optimal Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs under Climate Change: The Case of Tekeze Reservoir, Eastern Nile

Abera

Asfaw

Engida

et al. 2018

Water

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Abstract:Optimal operation of reservoirs is very essential for water resource planning and management, but it is very challenging and complicated when dealing with climate change impacts. The objective of this paper was to assess existing and future hydropower operation at the Tekeze reservoir in the face of climate change. In this study, a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model runoff inflow into the Tekeze hydropower reservoir under present and future climate scenarios. Inflow to the reservoir was simulated using hydro-climatic data from an ensemble of downscaled climate data based on the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment over African domain (CORDEX-Africa) with Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Observed and projected inflows to Tekeze hydropower reservoir were used as input to the US Army Corps of Engineer's Reservoir Evaluation System Perspective Reservoir Model (HEC-ResPRM), a reservoir operation model, to optimize hydropower reservoir release, storage and pool level. Results indicated that climate change has a clear impact on reservoir inflow and showed increase in annual and monthly inflow into the reservoir except in dry months from May to June under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. HEC-ResPRM optimal operation results showed an increase in Tekeze reservoir power storage potential up to 25% and 30% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. This implies that Tekeze hydropower production will be affected by climate change. This analysis can be used by water resources planners and mangers to develop reservoir operation techniques considering climate change impact to increase power production.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs under Climate Change: The Case of Tekeze Reservoir, Eastern Nile

Abera

Asfaw

Engida

et al. 2018

Water

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“…; Ehsani et al. ). Municipalities and irrigators who rely on surface water for their late‐season water source must account and plan for a potentially reduced supply.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

The Influence of Atmospheric Circulation on Abnormal Snowpack Melt‐Out Events and Drought in Wyoming

Nicholson

Shinker

Hanway

et al. 2018

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Declines in high‐elevation snowpack and its effect on water availability in the western United States is of great interest given the projected changes in temperatures that may alter snowpack melt‐out timing. Because water from snowmelt is crucial to the West's water supply, this study examines the influence of continental‐scale atmospheric variables on snowpack melt out from 1980 to 2016 in Wyoming. Using snow telemetry station and North American Regional Reanalysis data, this research finds abnormally early snowpack melt out in 1987, 1992, and 2012 was associated with persistent above‐normal high pressure during spring, leading to sustained warmer‐than‐normal and drier‐than‐normal conditions. Conversely, abnormally late snowpack melt out in 2011, 1995, 1983, 1982, 2008, and 1999 was associated with lower‐than‐normal 500 mb geopotential heights, corresponding to very cold temperatures for April, May, and June, which set the stage for late snowpack melt out. Snowpack melt‐out departure values are also correlated with late‐season agricultural drought as indicated by 10 Drought Severity indices. Using snowpack melt‐out timing, in association with atmospheric variables in a predictive capacity may assist regulatory agencies, such as the Bureau of Reclamation, to make better informed decisions about when, or when not, to store or release water to mitigate late‐season agricultural drought impacts.

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“…Ehsani et al () tackled a large‐scale study to test resilience of reservoirs' operation (for 11,000+ dams) in the North‐Eastern United States (see Figure therein) under climate change until 2100, which they projected according to all four RCPs from the HadGEM2‐ES GCM. They used a general reservoir operation scheme GROS, optimized via neural network approach.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Water resources management is particularly important in arid and semi‐arid basins of Middle East countries relying on water resources from the mountains, heavily sensitive to climate change. Climate change affects in practice all hydrological components (precipitation, evaporation, and streamflows,e.g., Bocchiola, ; Groppelli, Bocchiola, & Rosso, ), carrying a bearing on water availability and even water demand for all purposes, and may therefore affect optimal operation of water resources (Ehsani, Vörösmarty, Fekete, & Stakhiv, ). Snow/ice cover influences freshwater availability, and future cryospheric dynamics is of tremendous interest (Kaser, Großhauser, & Ben Marzeion, ; Soncini & Bocchiola, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Operation of two major reservoirs of Iran under IPCC scenarios during the XXI century

Akbari‐Alashti

Soncini

Dinpashoh

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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We assess the effects of prospective climate change until 2100 on water management of two major reservoirs of Iran, namely, Dez (3.34 × 109 m3) and Alavian (6 × 107 m3). We tune the Poly‐Hydro model suited for simulation of hydrological cycle in high altitude snow‐fed catchments. We assess optimal operation rules (ORs) for the reservoirs using three algorithms under dynamic and static operation and linear and non‐linear decision rules during control run (1990–2010 for Dez and 2000–2010 for Alavian). We use projected climate scenarios (plus statistical downscaling) from three general circulation models, EC‐Earth, CCSM4, and ECHAM6, and three emission scenarios, or representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for a grand total of nine scenarios, to mimic evolution of the hydrological cycle under future climate until 2100. We subsequently test the ORs under the future hydrological scenarios (at half century and end of century) and the need for reoptimization. Poly‐Hydro model when benchmarked against historical data well mimics the hydrological budget of both catchments, including the main processes of evapotranspiration and streamflows. Teaching–learning‐based optimization delivers the best performance in both reservoirs according to objective scores and is used for future operation. Our projections in Dez catchment depict decreased precipitation along the XXI century, with −1% on average (of the nine scenarios) at half century and −6% at the end of century, with changes in streamflows on average −7% yearly and −13% yearly, respectively. In Alavian, precipitation would decrease by −10% on average at half century and −13% at the end of century, with streamflows −14% yearly and −18% yearly, respectively. Under the projected future hydrology, reservoirs' operation would provide lower performance (i.e., larger lack of water) than now, especially for Alavian dam. Our results provide evidence of potentially decreasing water availability and less effective water management in water stressed areas like Northern Iran here during this century.

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Reservoir operations under climate change: Storage capacity options to mitigate risk

Cited by 224 publications

References 75 publications

Optimal Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs under Climate Change: The Case of Tekeze Reservoir, Eastern Nile

Optimal Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs under Climate Change: The Case of Tekeze Reservoir, Eastern Nile

The Influence of Atmospheric Circulation on Abnormal Snowpack Melt‐Out Events and Drought in Wyoming

Operation of two major reservoirs of Iran under IPCC scenarios during the XXI century

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