Reserve Setting and Steady-State Security Assessment Using Wind Power Uncertainty Forecast: A Case Study

Abstract

This paper reports results and an evaluation methodology from two new decision-aid tools that were demonstrated at a Transmission System Operator (REN, Portugal) during several months in the framework of the E.U. project Anemos.plus. The first tool is a probabilistic method intended to support the definition of the operating reserve requirements. The second is a fuzzy power flow tool that identifies possible congestion situations and voltage violations in the transmission network. Both tools use as input probabilistic wind power predictions.

Multi-dimensional scenario forecast for generation of multiple wind farms

“…In the figure the parameters of the forecasted Gaussian distributions are time-varying, which reflects the non-stationary nature of the error series. The mixture distribution [18] of the Gaussian distributions, which represents the realizations of all the Gaussian variables as one random variable, is calculated according to (4) and is shown in Fig. 6d.…”

“…As a result, estimating the uncertainty of the forecast result is believed to be crucial for the operation of power systems [3,4]. By now, several parametric or non-parametric approaches, e.g., the quantile regression approaches [5], the interval estimation approaches [6,7], and the probability density forecast approaches [8,9], have been proposed to achieve this aim.…”

Risk-Averse Preventive Voltage Control of AC/DC Power Systems Including Wind Power Generation

“…By increasing penetration of volatile renewable energy resources such as wind power generation, the most important uncertain parameters which directly affect the LM as well as the total costs are wind power generation and demand values [8], [9]. These uncertainties impose technical and economic risks on the system operator [10]. For example [8] addresses a methodology based on PV and QV analysis for probabilistic risk of voltage collapse.…”

An interval-based contingency selection approach considering uncertainty

“…Since these resources are highly intermittent, variable, and difficult to forecast accurately, analysis and operation of a power system based on these resources are obviously affected [1].…”