Reserve margin evaluation for generation system using probabilistic based method

Diewvilai, Radhanon; Nidhiritdhikrai, Raksanai; Eua‐arporn, Bundhit

doi:10.1109/ecticon.2011.5947987

Cited by 17 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Ang'u et al (2020) analyze the role of reserve margin in electricity tariffs in Kenya using a regression model and it is shown that the reserve margin has a role in determining the electricity prices. Diewvilai et al (2011) propose a probabilistic approach to determine the appropriate reserve margin for an electrical system taking Thailand as the case study. Their main motivation is that too much reserve margin requires over-investment in generation capacity whereas too low a margin might cause generation risk and decreased reliability.…”

Section: Background and Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Supply and Demand Analysis for the Turkish Electricity Market: Supply Adequacy and Resource Utilization

Önay

Yücekaya

Bilge

et al. 2021

IJEEP

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Electricity is a critical commodity for which the demand should be met using reliable, cost-effective, and sustainable resources. The characteristics of supply and demand should be comparatively analyzed for efficient electric power system planning. This study examines Turkey's current electricity supply and demand and their characteristics for future balance. Turkey's installed capacity and electricity consumption per capita are analyzed using historical data, and trends for future electricity demand are estimated. Electricity supply based on generation sources is reviewed, and the historical contribution of each source to total generation is shown. Statistical distribution of electricity generation by generation types and their relationships are also investigated. As the supply adequacy should be carefully reviewed for sustainability, finally, the characteristics of supply are analyzed using capacity factors, reserve margins, capacity margins, load duration curves, and peak-to-average demand ratios. It is shown that although the margins are above comfortable levels after 2017, they still need to be increased as the increased use of renewables might require extra availability. The load duration curves and peak-to-average demand ratios have shown that the density of demand is increasing, and capacity needs to be expanded and utilized carefully in the future for the reliability of the power system.

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Section: Background and Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Supply and Demand Analysis for the Turkish Electricity Market: Supply Adequacy and Resource Utilization

Önay

Yücekaya

Bilge

et al. 2021

IJEEP

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…High Reserve Margin can provide high reliability to the system. However, it acquires more generation plant, for which some of them may not be necessary [1]. This can cause over investment in generating capacity that can lead to excessive operating costs which may be reflected in the tariff structure [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are many studies involves in determining the generation reliability such as LOLE. Study of [1] proposed method to determine appropriate Reserve Margin by using probabilistic base method. The method is to calculate the value of appropriate Reserve Margin based on probabilistic method using a reliability index, i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship Between Loss of Load Expectation and Reserve Margin for Optimal Generation Planning

2016

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Generation planning utilizes reliability indices as criteria to ensure adequacy in terms of total installed capacity. Reserve Margin and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) are the most widely-used indices in generation adequacy evaluation. Reserve Margin is a measure of available capacity over and above the capacity needed to meet normal peak demand levels. In Peninsular Malaysia, the amount of Reserve Margin has been perceived to be high. Generally, high Reserve Margin can provide high reliability. However, it acquires more generation plant, for which some of them may not be necessary. This may indicate over investment which will be reflected in the tariff structure. LOLE is a probabilistic measure which indicates the risk at which the generation capacity fails to meet the demand and its evaluation involves specific parameters such as the plant capacity and outage rate of each generating unit. Therefore, in order to have optimum generation planning and investment efficiency, it is necessary to perform a study on the practical Reserve Margin level with respect to the current LOLE requirement without endangering the overall power system reliability. This research studies the factors affecting LOLE and evaluates the relationship between Reserve Margin and LOLE under various conditions. A modified Peninsular Malaysia system is simulated using Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP -IV) to determine LOLE focusing on thermal power plants. This study concludes that peak load and forced outage rate give significant impacts to the LOLE and thus, the reliability of the system. Effort to ensure availability especially during peak load may need to be intensified. The study also establishes an inverse exponential curve for the relationship between Reserve Margin and LOLE. It is found that the outcome of the study is to enhance generation planning decision making in obtaining the optimum Reserve Margin considering the LOLE under various conditions.

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A modified algorithm for allocating reserve power considering security constraints

Hosseini

Toulabi

Ashouri‐Zadeh

et al. 2020

Int Trans Electr Energ Syst

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Reserve margin evaluation for generation system using probabilistic based method

Cited by 17 publications

References 3 publications

A Supply and Demand Analysis for the Turkish Electricity Market: Supply Adequacy and Resource Utilization

A Supply and Demand Analysis for the Turkish Electricity Market: Supply Adequacy and Resource Utilization

Relationship Between Loss of Load Expectation and Reserve Margin for Optimal Generation Planning

A modified algorithm for allocating reserve power considering security constraints

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