Research progresses and prospects of multi-sphere compound extremes from the Earth System perspective

Hao, Zengchao; Chen, Yang

doi:10.1007/s11430-023-1201-y

Sci. China Earth Sci.

2024

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-023-1201-y

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Research progresses and prospects of multi-sphere compound extremes from the Earth System perspective

Zengchao Hao,

Yang Chen

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2024

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Cited by 4 publications

References 335 publications

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Flash drought and heatwave compound events increased in strength and length from 1980 to 2022 in China

Fu,

Yu,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Weather and Climate Extremes

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Flash drought and heatwave compound events increased in strength and length from 1980 to 2022 in China

Fu,

Yu,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Weather and Climate Extremes

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Attribution of the unprecedented summer 2022 compound marine and terrestrial heatwave in the Northwest Pacific

Chen,

Li,

Feng

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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In boreal summer (July–August) 2022, an unprecedented marine heatwave (MHW) occurred in the northwest Pacific Ocean (NWP), while a record-breaking terrestrial heatwave (THW) hit the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). The temperature anomalies caused by this compound MHW-THW event exceeded climatology by 2.5 standard deviations (SDs), breaking the historical record for nearly 100 years, with severe impacts on the ecosystems and social economy. To investigate the underlying causes, we explored the potential roles of anthropogenic forcing, atmospheric circulation, and ‘triple-dip’ La Niña on this compound event using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model simulations. Results indicate that the 2022-like compound MHW-THW event was extremely unlikely to happen without anthropogenic warming, and that such extreme heatwaves were governed by the climatic mean temperature rather than changes in temperature variability. Notably, the anticyclone circulation patterns and associated high-pressure systems (i.e. western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and South Asian high (SAH)) increase the probability of a 2022-like MHW-THW event by 3.7 times. However, the La Niña phase has no significant effect on the occurrence probability of such events. We further estimate that the 2022-like MHW-THW event will become 7.5 and 11.4 times more likely under the SSP3-7.0 scenario by the middle and end of the 21st century, respectively. This study demonstrates the contribution of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability to the occurrence of compound MHW-THW events and highlights the urgent need to build mitigation strategies for compound MHW-THW events.

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Long-Term Variation Patterns of Precipitations Driven by Climate Change in China from 1901 to 2022

Han,

Zhang,

Guo

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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Studying long-term precipitation trends is crucial for sustainable development, as the proper utilization of water resources is essential for maintaining a sustainable water supply. The objective and novelty of this paper was to reveal the gradual mutation process of precipitation in China over a century. This study utilized monthly precipitation data from 1901 to 2022 (at a century scale) to analyze and explore the spatiotemporal variability in precipitation across different time scales and regions with a trend analysis, an abrupt change analysis, and gravity center models. The findings indicate that (1) from 1901 to 2022, the precipitation in China generally decreased from the southeast coastal areas toward the northwest inland regions. (2) There were significant differences in the migration of precipitation gravity centers among the different study regions, with the least dispersion being observed in the Liao River basin, while the Hai River basin, various river basins in the northwest, and the Pearl River basin exhibited certain regularities in gravity center movement, and other regions showed periodic variations. (3) Over the period from 1901 to 2022, there was a trend of transitioning from lower to higher precipitation levels. (4) According to continuous long-term abrupt change tests, the timing of precipitation shifts varied across different basins. Precipitation, as a crucial component of natural resources, directly impacts various aspects of socio-economic life. Research findings provide decision support for regional flood control and disaster reduction and offer scientific decisions for ecological security.

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Research progresses and prospects of multi-sphere compound extremes from the Earth System perspective

Cited by 4 publications

References 335 publications

Flash drought and heatwave compound events increased in strength and length from 1980 to 2022 in China

Flash drought and heatwave compound events increased in strength and length from 1980 to 2022 in China

Attribution of the unprecedented summer 2022 compound marine and terrestrial heatwave in the Northwest Pacific

Long-Term Variation Patterns of Precipitations Driven by Climate Change in China from 1901 to 2022

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