Research on the Influencing Factors of Film Consumption and Box Office Forecast in the Digital Era: Based on the Perspective of Machine Learning and Model Integration

Abstract

The film industry is one of the core industries of the digital creative industry, which has great positive externalities to the digital creative economy. Movie box office revenue is an important indicator to measure the realization of the market value of movie consumption, and it is also the basic guarantee for the sustainable development of the movie industry. This paper relies on the professional database of the Maoyan movie market to use Python software to collect a total of 830 domestic movie-related consumption characteristic data from 2017 to 2019. In this study, the stacking method in the machine learning ensemble algorithm combines the fivefold crossfolding training method based on distributed random forest, extremely randomized trees, and generalized linear models. The model is good at handling different data types. It has higher fitting and model accuracy in feature mining and model construction, so as to effectively grasp the relevant feature factors affecting movie consumption and accurately predict the future movie box office. Based on the innovative design method of model fusion, the extracted feature vector is used to build a more accurate movie box office prediction model through stacking with a fivefold crossfolding training method. It is aimed at opening the black box that affects the realization of the value of the film content consumption market in the digital age and putting forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.

A Deep Learning Approach to Predict Film Box Office in the Chinese Domestic Market Based on Feed-Forward Neural Network

“…As can be seen from Figure 1. [1], when building a Multi-Layer Feed-Forward (MLF) Neural Network with two hidden layers, we need 170 epochs. Set the learning rate, expected error and training times.…”

“…The Chinese film market provides positive signals for the recovery of the global film industry and will also inject strong momentum into the development of the film industry. Box office revenue is a crucial indicator for measuring the market value of movie consumption [1]. Beyond its impact on the film itself, the box office also has a strong guiding effect on the pricing of film products and the development of derivative products.…”

The Analysis and Implementation of Film Decision-Making Based on Python

“…advantage of this algorithm is that it is insensitive to the correlation between variables and avoids the effect of multicollinearity [31][32][33].…”

“…e full explosion of the movie market is destined to be accompanied by the diversification of people's movie-going preferences [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. In the future development of domestic movies, under the influence of the new film industry pattern, movie genres will become more and more abundant, and traditional comedies and romances will join hands with new genres such as suspense and crime to the screen.…”

The Trend of Box Office Performance During 2021 National Day Holiday

“…According to the paper which is written by Qi He and Bin Hu, the film industry combines humanities and arts with technological innovation. In most parts of the world, the film industry has always been the main means of cultural output [2]. The film is called the Eighth Art.…”