Research on the Influence of Regulatory Policies of Shanghai Real Estate on the House Price—Based on the Empirical Study of VAR Model

Abstract

Research Contents: This paper analyzes the influence of regulatory policies of Shanghai real estate on the price of new houses in Shanghai from June of 2013 to December of 2017 by building VAR model and evaluates the effectiveness of regulatory policies. The policy of property purchase restrictions inhibits the rapid increase of house price in a short time, but does so little in a long time. Credit policy can affect house price in a timely and rapid manner. Monetary policy can have a far-reaching influence. House supply in the future and the change of current house price index have some bearing on psychological expectation of consumers. Shanghai municipal government should attach more importance to the establishment of long-term mechanism and guarantee the effectiveness of policies when regulating real estate market and inhibiting the rapid increase of house price.