Research on the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on the NDVI of Arid Areas—A Case Study of the Shiyang River Basin

Abstract

Arid zone ecosystems, integral to terrestrial systems, exhibit relatively low stability and are prone to influences from human activities and climate change. To elucidate the influence on the ecological environment of the arid zone by climate change and human activities, the paper takes normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as an evaluation index of the ecosystem and uses trend analysis to evaluation of NDVI variation characteristics in the Shiyang River Basin (SRB) from 1990 to 2020. Simultaneously using methods such as partial correlation analysis and residual analysis to evaluate the impact of climate change and human activities on NDVI changes. This study yielded several key findings: (1) The NDVI in the SRB exhibits an increasing trend of 0.034/10a in the interannual variation. (2) The relation cooperatives between NDVI and the deviation of precipitation and temperature in the SRB range from −0.735 to 0.770 and −0.602 to 0.773, respectively. (3) The changes in land use and groundwater depth in the SRB have a certain impact on NDVI changes. (4) The proportion of areas with significant contributions (contribution rate greater than 60%) from climate change and human activities to NDVI change is 33.5% and 22.5%, respectively.