Research on the coupled mechanism of landscape connectivity simulation by integrating multi‐level ecological security patterns and multi‐scenario simulation: A case study of the main urban area of Hangzhou

Abstract

In the context of rapid urbanization, protecting landscape connectivity has become an effective measure to mitigate habitat fragmentation and curb biodiversity decline. However, in the current research on simulating optimization processes, the ecological constraints often set are dispersed, isolated, and fixed. They fail to form a comprehensive protective spatial framework and struggle to align with the multifaceted objectives of future development. This study, taking the main urban area of Hangzhou, China as a case study and employing small mammals as indicator species, utilizes the PLUS model to predict the potential threats to landscape connectivity of biological habitats posed by artificial surface expansion from 2020 to 2035. It constructs a coupled mechanism that integrates multi‐level ecological security patterns (ESPs) and multi‐scenario simulation for landscape connectivity, successfully demonstrating the effectiveness of this mechanism in future landscape connectivity preservation. The results indicate that under the scenarios of business‐as‐usual (BAU), priority given to urban development (PUD), and priority given to ecological protection (PEP), the overall level of landscape connectivity in the main urban area of Hangzhou is projected to decrease by 18.42%, 7.02%, and 4.39% respectively from 2020 to 2035. The reduction in core area is estimated to be 9.08%, 7.85%, and 6.34%, respectively, while highly important patches are expected to decrease by 12.91%, 7.51%, and 5.86%, respectively. Both PEP and PUD scenarios effectively mitigate the degree of landscape connectivity disruption. This study provides valuable insights for the future optimization of landscape connectivity and contributes to biodiversity conservation efforts.