Research on the Capability to Prevent Returning to Poverty and Its Enhancement Path for the Ecologically Fragile Areas: A Case Study of Enshi Prefecture

Abstract

According to the strategic plan for rural revitalization and the consolidation of poverty alleviation achievements, this research has developed an evaluation indicator system encompassing three dimensions: environment, social support, and economic resilience, viewed through a sustainable development lens. This system is designed to gauge the capacity to forestall a relapse into poverty in ecologically fragile regions and can also serve as a foundation for the government to establish a comprehensive early-warning and monitoring system. An integrated approach, combining the TOPSIS and entropy methods, was employed to assess the capability to prevent a recurrence of poverty based on data from Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture spanning 2016 to 2022. Subsequently, the obstacle degree model was utilized to pinpoint critical barriers to enhancing its capability to mitigate the risk of reverting to poverty. The findings clearly indicated that, compared to other regions, Enshi City and Lichuan City maintained the most robust comprehensive capabilities to avert poverty recurrence between 2016 and 2022. Furthermore, the evaluation of capabilities across various dimensions revealed that, with the exception of Enshi City, other counties and cities demonstrated lower capacities in the environmental, social support, and economic resilience dimensions. Moreover, in 2020, the capabilities of all counties and cities deteriorated, and the capabilities under the dimensions of social support and economic resilience had not returned to their former levels by 2022, suggesting that the social and economic systems are susceptible to emergency public crises. A spatiotemporal analysis of the factors impeding the enhancement of capabilities in the counties and cities of Enshi Prefecture showed that the inhibiting factors varied by region, with the most prevalent obstacles stemming from economic resilience. In terms of environmental dimensions, the total regional water supply played a pivotal role in Enshi Prefecture. There was a pronounced regional disparity in the development of capabilities to prevent the recurrence of poverty, and the evolution of systems, such as the environment, social support, and economic resilience, was markedly uncoordinated. Finally, strategic recommendations and measures were formulated to bolster the capabilities to avert returning to poverty in ecologically fragile areas across these three dimensions.